Production forecast Germany 2023-2030
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Production forecast Germany 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest production forecasts for passenger cars (PC)+ light utility vehicules (LUV) in Germany are rather pessimistic, as Germany will never again reach the level of 2010-2017, i.e. a volume of 6 million vehicles per year, but only 4 million vehicles per year.
- These forecasts take into account a catch-up from 2023 onwards, after a very poor performance in 2020, 2021 and 2022 due to the Corona crisis (in 2020), the semiconductor crisis (in 2021) and then the consequences of the war in Ukraine (in 2022). German automotive production (PC+LUV) thus fell from 5 million units in 2019 to less than 3.5 million units in 2021 and 2022.
- Other factors worked against German production, such as relocations (which occurred later than in France), the reduction of exports to China (in favor of local production), the difficulty of manufacturers to switch from fossil combustion engines to electric cars and probably to produce fewer but more expensive vehicles. This factor has probably contributed to a decrease in production volume at Volkswagen, Audi, BMW and Mercedes. In addition, there is the collapse of the American brands based in Germany (Opel and Ford). Ford, for example, has planned to close its Saarlouis plant in the near future. Symbolizing the end of German supremacy, the Volkswagen Golf has not been the best-selling model in Europe since 2022, and the ID3 is not the most popular electric car in Europe as announced.
- Inovev expects 4 million vehicles to be produced annually in Germany between 2024 and 2030.
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Production forecast Italy 2023-2030
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Production forecast Italy 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest forecast for passenger cars (PC) + light utility vehicules (LUV) in Italy foresees a catch-up process starting in 2023, after the three mediocre years of 2020, 2021 and 2022 due to the Corona crisis (2020), the semiconductor crisis (2021) and the consequences of the war in Ukraine (2022).
- The catch-up process from 2023 will be reinforced by the expansion of production at Mirafiori for the Fiat 500 e with electric drive, which will gradually replace the Fiat 500 with internal combustion engine produced in Poland. The Melfi site will accommodate new products (100% electric) from 2024. The Cassino site will ramp up production with the expansion of sales of the Alfa Tonale and its derivative, Dodge Hornet.
- The Val di Sangro site has just started production of the Opel Movano (previously manufactured in France by Renault) and will start production of a Toyota derivative of the Opel Movano in 2024.
- However, the Val di Sangro plant will not increase its production volume, as Stellantis' management has decided to manufacture part of its production at the Gliwice plant in Poland, which will be reduced by the production of the Opel Astra from 2022.
- Overall, production volume in Italy is expected to reach 825,000 units in 2026 and 2027, a far cry from the million units reached in 2017. In 2030, this production volume is not expected to exceed 750,000 units, roughly the same level as in 2020 or 2010. The yoyo rhythm is typical of Italy's automotive production.
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Production forecast Europe 2023-2030
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Production forecast Europe 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest forecasts of passenger cars (PC) + light utility vehicules (LUV) production for Europe 29 countries show a catch-up process after the collapse of European production in 2020, 2021 and 2022 as a result of the Brexit in the UK, the Corona crisis (2020), the semiconductor crisis (2021) and then the consequences of the war in Ukraine (2022).
- PC+LUV production volume decreased from 18.5 million units in 2016 to 18.0 million units in 2018, then to 13.5 million units in 2020, 13.0 million units in 2021, and 11.25 million units in 2022.
- Inovev assumes a gradual rebound in which the effects of the various crises mentioned above are felt less and less. In this reference scenario assumed by Inovev, European production could again exceed the 13 million mark in 2023, the 14 million mark in 2024, and the 15 million mark in 2026. It will remain at this level until 2029. However, it will be far from the 2015-2019 figures (a total volume almost 20% lower than in these previous years).
- This scenario takes into account that customers accept the high prices of European electric vehicles, but also that sales of electric vehicles from China, which are offered at lower prices, increase.
- If a large proportion of customers reject the high price of European electric vehicles and instead switch massively to Chinese vehicles or other means of transport, the volume of car production in Europe could be 10% to 20% lower than the annual production volume forecast by Inovev.
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Production forecast United Kingdom 2023-2030
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Production forecast United Kingdom 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest forecast for passenger cars (PC) + light utility vehicules (LUV) production in the UK (currently England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) shows a modest catch-up from 2023, with a peak of one million vehicles per year in 2026 and 2027. This figure is still a far cry from the peak in 2016 and 2017, which was over 1.75 million units per year.
- Since those years, U.K. automotive production has suffered several shocks: first, Brexit (the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union) has led to an increase in U.K. costs, which in turn has led to the departure of Honda (Swindon) and capacity reductions at Vauxhall (Ellesmere Port), as well as Nissan (Sunderland) and Toyota (Burnaston). Production at Jaguar (Castle Bromwich) and Land Rover (Solihull) was also severely affected. Incidentally, the Castle Bromwich plant will close in 2024. The production volume of passenger cars+LUV in the UK thus dropped from 1.75 million units in 2017 to 1.35 million units in 2019.
- Then came the Corona crisis (2020), the semiconductor crisis (2021) and the consequences of the war in Ukraine (2022). Production volumes continued to fall: 975,000 in 2020, 935,000 in 2021, and 725,000 in 2022. In the UK, the number hasn't been this low since 1952! The next few years don't really get any better: Inovev forecasts one million units in 2026 and 2027, but 900,000 in 2028 and 2029 and 825,000 in 2030. The fact that the UK is not part of the European Union will remain a constant problem unless the country decides to become a manufacturing base for chinese brands.
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The Dacia Sandero becomes one of the best-selling cars in Europe
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The Dacia Sandero becomes one of the best-selling cars in Europe
- Since its launch, the Dacia Sandero has been one of the few low-priced cars in the B segment with an combustion engine available on the European market (11,000 euros to 12,300 euros), as no other manufacturer has managed to launch a model for such a price in this segment. The Fiat Panda (€12,000) is from a lower segment (A-segment), and the Hyundai I10 and the Kia Picanto from the A-segment are more expensive (over €12,500).
- Since 2021, the Dacia Sandero benefits from the platform of the latest Renault Clio models, whose price starts at 17,000 euros. Even a Renault Twingo is more expensive (over 15,500 euros). The Sandero is therefore in a category of its own on the European market, which accounts for its success. Ranked fifth in this market at the beginning of 2021, it will be third from the end of 2021. As of summer 2022, it is now in second place behind the Peugeot 208, which has led the European market since the beginning of this year, overtaking the previous market leader, the Volkswagen Golf. It is followed by the Opel Corsa and the Renault Clio.
- Since January 1, 2021, 351,000 Peugeot 208s, 306,000 Volkswagen Golfs, 298,000 Dacia Sanderos, 285,000 Opel Corsas and 280,000 Renault Clios have been sold. It wasn't until 2022 that sales of the Dacia Sandero overtook those of the Renault Clio, and the gap between the two models has widened since last spring. Indeed, why buy a car for 17 000 euros when you can get practically the same car for 11 000 or 12 000 euros? It should be noted that the Sandero leads in purchases made by private individuals.
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