Japan's car production stagnates since 2012
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Japan's car production stagnates since 2012
- The volume of car production in Japan (PC+LCV) has stagnated for several decades, but it has reached a new milestone by constantly remaining below 10 million vehicles since 2012 (against 11.5 million in 2008 and 13, 5 million in 1990). The main explanation for this decline in production in Japan is that Japanese manufacturers have plants around the world, including in North America, Europe and Southeast Asia. And over the decades, they have steadily increased production in these factories, gradually transferring much of the volumes previously produced in Japan. And this movement will not stop any time soon, given that US President Donald Trump encourages Japanese manufacturers to produce even more on American soil ...
- The volume of production in Japan could thus fall to around 8 million units a year, over the next few years, especially since we cannot count on a rise in the Japanese car market, which has been stagnating for some 20 years, at around 5 million units a year.
- The Toyota Group (Toyota, Daihatsu, Lexus, Hino) remains largely leader of the Japanese market (54% of registrations) and in terms of production (44% of Japanese production). Renault-Nissan retains its second place (12% of registrations but 17% of Japanese production), ahead of Mazda, Suzuki, Honda, Subaru and Isuzu.
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China's car production is gradually approaching 30 million units
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China's car production is gradually approaching 30 million units
- The volume of car production in China (PC+LCV) has been growing steadily since 2005, rising from 5 million units in that year to 29 million in 2017 (including 25 million passenger cars and 4 million commercial vehicles), an increase of 500% in twelve years.
- It should be noted that this growth in Chinese automobile production (which is progressing in upward steps ) depends mainly on the growth of the Chinese car market. In fact, imports and exports remain very low, given the volume of the market: they are at about one-thirtieth of the market and one-thirtieth of production, which is excessively low.
- We also note that the growth of Chinese car production has slowed in recent years, which could augur a few years of near-stagnation, around 35 million units, one-third of global production.
- By manufacturer, we can see that two groups (Volkswagen and GM) progressively outdistanced all the others and alone represent 27.5% of Chinese car production in 2017. Far behind, the Renault-Nissan, Honda and Geely groups have benefited of the fall in sales of Hyundai-Kia en 2017. Geely could become the third-largest car producer in China this year, behind Volkswagen and GM.
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Auto production in South Korea: no growth since 2010
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Auto production in South Korea: no growth since 2010
- The volume of car production in South Korea (PC+LCV) has stagnated since 2010. It even fell in 2016 and 2017, registering a figure close to 4 million units, against 4.5 million in previous years.
- This stagnation followed by a decline is mainly due to the establishment of Hyundai-Kia Group factories on all continents, as the Japanese manufacturers had done in the 1980s. It is also due to the sharp decline in influence of GM Korea (whose production was halved between 2007 and 2017, from 1,000,000 to 500,000 annual units), due to the discontinuation of the Chevrolet brand in the European market, Ukraine and Russia, since almost all Chevrolet sold in these countries came from Korea.
- In 2017, the Hyundai-Kia group still retains its predominance in the Korean market (67.5% of registrations compared to 72.5% in 2007) and in terms of production (78% of Korean production compared to 69% in 2007).
- The decline in sales in the Korean market and the increase in its predominance in terms of production is explained by the strong growth of imports in this market (which has reduced the market share of Hyundai-Kia) and by the reduction of half of GM Korea's production. As for Renault-Nissan (Samsung) and Mahindra (Ssangyong), their low volumes can not threaten the future position of the Hyundai-Kia group.
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Moroccan automotive production is gradually approaching 400,000 units
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Moroccan automotive production is gradually approaching 400,000 units
- The volume of Moroccan automotive production (VP + VU) is based on only Renault, since it is currently the only manufacturer producing in the country, pending the start of PSA group production next year.
- While the volume of automobile production was close to zero in 2005, it has increased sharply since the start of production at the Renault Tangier plant in 2012 calibrated to manufacture 340,000 vehicles per year. Prior to this date, the country's automobile production was carried out only at the Renault site in Casablanca,( which still exists.)
- In 2017, the volume produced in Tangiers reached 300,000 units, approaching its maximum capacity. As for the Casablanca factory, it produced 76,000 units, the total of the two sites thus reaching 376,000 units.
- This volume is already higher than that of Belgian production and close to that of Swedish production. It is well above that of Portuguese and Dutch production combined. In 2017, Renault's two Moroccan sites exported more than 300,000 cars from Morocco (including 200,000 to Europe).
- However, it should not increase much in the next few years. Indeed, the growth of Moroccan automobile production will be mainly due to the start up and ramp-up of the PSA site in Tangier, which should be completed in 2019 (capacity set at 100,000 vehicles per year).
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Auto production in India close to 5 million units in 2017
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Auto production in India close to 5 million units in 2017
- The volume of car production in India (PC+LCV) was almost 5 million vehicles in 2017, at 4.85 million units, which is a volume three times higher than in 2005.
- This steady growth is due not only to the growth of the Indian car market (which went from 1.75 million in 2005 to 4 million units in 2017), but also to the growth of exports (to Europe and Southeast Asia mainly) during this period. Nearly one million vehicles manufactured overall in India were exported in 2017, including 150,000 to Europe.
- By manufacturer, we observe that Suzuki-Maruti has experienced very strong growth since 2005 and consolidates its first place in the Indian market, in terms of sales and production. Suzuki-Maruti accounts for more than 43% of registrations and more than 35% of Indian production. The Tata group, once the second-largest Indian producer behind Suzuki-Maruti, has been experiencing significant difficulties since 2012, with successive new models often being resounding commercial failures, the most symbolic being the Tata Nano. Fortunately Tata survives thanks to its British luxury and utilities subsidiaries. Tata's second position has been taken over by Korea's Hyundai-Kia, which over the years has launched a range of economical models that perfectly match local demand.
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