The Chinese market is up 4.8% in the first nine months of 2017
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The Chinese market is up 4.8% in the first nine months of 2017
- The Chinese market (PC + LCV) increased by 4.8% in the first nine months of 2017 with a volume of 20.2 million units.
- This result confirms the trend observed since the beginning of the summer, that is to say a growth of about 5%, much lower than that recorded in 2016 which had been boosted by purchase incentives (reduction of taxes on models less than 1600cc). At this rate, the Chinese market should be between 29 million and 29.5 million registrations throughout the year. This figure will now represent 30% of the world market.
- One must recall that China has 46 national manufacturers plus 15 foreign manufacturers, so sixty one manufacturers in total producing locally. It is the country that has the most automotive manufacturers. The number of manufacturers is expected to decrease over the next five years, to reach a total of about forty manufacturers.
- In 2017, seven manufacturers have more than half of the Chinese market: the Volkswagen group (15%), the GM group (14%), Honda (5%), Changan (5%), Geely (5%), Renault- Nissan (5%) and Toyota (5%). Among these seven manufacturers are two independent Chinese manufacturers (Changan and Geely), two Europeans (Volkswagen and Renault-Nissan), two Japanese (Honda and Toyota) and one American (GM).
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The Japanese market is up 8.8% in the first nine months of 2017
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The Japanese market is up 8.8% in the first nine months of 2017
- The Japanese market (PC + LCV) increased by 8.8% over the first 9 months of 2017. The volume sold over the first 9 months of 2017 was 4.11 million units.
- In September 2017, growth was however less strong (less than 5%), which indicates a slowdown compared to the last six months. This slowdown in growth could be accentuated in the last quarter of 2017. This trend, which has started since the end of the summer, has been disappointing since the fourth quarter of 2016, the Japanese market had restarted well, following the declines recorded in 2015 and 2016 (first three quarters).
- As Inovev has maintained for several years now, the Japanese market will not be able to return to its highest levels, because of a high rate of car ownership, a saturated automotive park , the aging of the population and the lack of interest of the younger generations for this type of mobility. Honda recently corroborated these forecasts, stating that the Japanese market could not increase in the medium and long term, and that this is one of the reasons that prompted it to close its historic Sayama factory, where it had begun the Honda adventure in the 60s.
- The year 2017 should therefore end with a volume of registrations in the order of 5.3 million units relative to 5 million in 2016, but 5.4 million in 2014, 5.9 million in 2005 and 6 million in 2000.
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The Russian market is up 10.6% in the first 9 months of 2017
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The Russian market is up 10.6% in the first 9 months of 2017
- The Russian market (PC + LCV) rose by 10.6% over the first 9 months of 2017 total, with a volume of 1.13 million units. This recovery ends four years of uninterrupted decline, from 2013 to 2016. The clientele seems to have regained confidence, with the decline in economic sanctions against Russia and the tax incentives issued by the Russian government that allows certain customers to make auto purchases after several years of waiting.
- The Russian market could finish the year 2017 with a volume of 1.6 million vehicles, compared to 1.42 million units in 2016 and 1.6 million units in 2015. It would therefore return to its 2015 level but would still be far from the figures for 2012 (2.93 million units) or 2008 (2.85 million units).
- The year 2017 is characterized by a transfer of customers to the models produced locally, since this year the vehicles purchased and produced in Russia make up 84% of registrations, against 79% in 2016 and 66% in 2012. As a result, imports have dropped a lot. They went from 1 million units in 2012, to 300,000 in 2016 and probably 200,000 in 2017, a fall of 80% in six years. This is the result of the Russian government's policy of producing vehicles sold in Russia locally, including switching from SKD production (Semi Knock Down) to CKD (Complete Knock Down).
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The European market (29 countries) is up 3.6% in the first 9 months of 2017
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The European market (29 countries) is up 3.6% in the first 9 months of 2017
- In the first 9-months of 2017 , the European market (29 countries) rose by 3.6% with a volume of 13.54 million units. However in September 2017, it fell by 2%.
- This decline in September is attributable to the poor scores recorded in the two largest European markets: Germany (-3.3%) and England (-9.3%). England ‘s car market continues to decline since the introduction of new taxes in the first half of 2017, and the first consequences of Brexit are beginning to be felt. In the first 9 months of 2017, England fell by almost 4%. For Germany, the political context may have negatively impacted the automotive market (waiting phenomenon). Over the total of the first 9 months of 2017, however, Germany remains positive (+ 2.2%).
- Overall, the market seems to be slowing in the second half of 2017, as the number of countries with negative sales progression on September is 11 relative to 7 in August, 5 in July and 5 in June.
- Inovev expects a 3.2% increase in the European market (29 countries) in 2017, for a volume of 17.6 million units, compared to 17.1 million in 2016 and 18.7 million in 2007. The estimated volume for 2017 is however the best achieved since the record of 2007. Three manufacturers together make up more than 50% of European registrations: the Volkswagen group (23%), the PSA group (16%) and the Renault-Nissan group (15%).
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PSA reduces its production capacity in Great Britain
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PSA reduces its production capacity in Great Britain
- The PSA group will proceed to lower its production capacity on the Vauxhall site at Ellesmere Port. For many years, this site has been manufacturing part of the Opel Astra distributed in the European market and in Overseas markets.
- Thus, in 2016, 118,000 Astra were produced on the Ellesmere Port site, of which 23,000 for the British market and 2,000 for Ireland, the rest being distributed throughout the European continent and on foreign markets, except Russia and Ukraine where Opel has ceased its presence. The Ellesmere Port site has manufactured 80,000 Astra over the first 8 months of 2017.
- In comparison, the other European factory that manufactures Opel Astra, that of Gliwice in Poland, manufactured 187,000 units in 2016 and 120,000 units in the first 8 months of 2017.
- The strategy of PSA observed in recent years is to gradually concentrate the production of the same model in a single factory. PSA may do the same with the Opel Astra at the Gliwice plant. This site has a production capacity of 200,000 vehicles per year, but would need to increase to 300,000 units per year to reach the volume of all Astra produced in Europe in 2016.
- Before PSA took over Opel / Vauxhall, the GM group planned to close the Ellesmere Port and Luton plants by 2020. PSA, however, has committed to maintaining these plants. In the case of a transfer of the Opel Astra to Poland, the French group will have to produce another model or close the plant regardless.
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