Production forecasts in Spain in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in Spain in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- In 2012 and 2013, the Spanish automobile production was at its lowest levels of the last decade. Spain has suffered both from the fall of the domestic market, but also the fall in of other European markets of which it remains heavily dependent. Exports have declined greatly, Spanish production has remained at very low levels, even falling behind France in 2012.
- The years 2014 and 2015 were as Inovev had foreseen those of the stimulus, because on one hand the domestic market has restarted (through the introduction of new scrappage schemes - the PIVE Plan), on the other hand exports have also restarted (thanks to the reboot of European markets), and finally Spanish plants benefited from the contribution of new models coming from the outside, like the Opel Mokka (from Korea), Ford Mondeo (from Belgium), _ Ford Galaxy / S-Max (from Belgium) and the Ford Transit Connect (from Turkey).
- The Renault Captur (arrived at Valladolid in 2013) is experiencing for its part a great success that benefits Spanish production. The recent Renault Kadjar (arrived at Palencia in 2015) is renewing this good performance. The Citroën C4 Cactus is experiencing a decent success. Late 2016, the Citroen C3 Picasso will also arrive to Spain from Slovakia. Inovev therefore expects a growth of 5% of production in Spain between 2015 and 2016,almost reaching the peek level achieved in 2007.
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Production forecasts in Italy in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in Italy in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- The Italian car production declined a lot after 2007, primarily because of several relocations: towards Poland (Fiat Panda, Fiat 500, LanciaYpsilon) to Serbia (Fiat 500L) and to Turkey (Fiat Fiorino, Doblo, Tipo). Moreover, the decline of Fiat sales in the C segment (Stilo, Bravo) and of Lancia on segments_ C-D-E (Delta, Lybra, Thesis), and even Alfa Romeo in a whole accentuated the decline in Italian production.
- Finally, the sharp decline of the Italian market after the financial crisis, has not favored the revival of the Italian automotive industry that remains its largest supplier. Thus, the Italian automobile production experienced its low point in 2013 (639 000 units), 50% below the level of 2007. The years 2014 and 2015 have reversed the trend, because the domestic market is now restarting, like the European market (after five years of decline).
- In addition,since the purchase of Chrysler, the Fiat Group can now have a global production policy, callowing it to produce in Italy global vehicles like the recent Jeep Renegade and Fiat 500X produced in Melfi, the future Alfa Romeos planned for 2016-2017 and Maserati that saw its sales multiplied by 6 in five years. Italian production should therefore come closer to 900 000 units in 2016.Inovev forecasts a growth of Italian production of 10% between 2015 and 2016.
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Production forecasts in Great Britain in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in Great Britain in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- British car production has experienced uninterrupted growth since drop in 2009, meaning that today it is close behind the levels of French production. British production is experiencing a good health thanks to the success of the Nissan Qashqai, Juke Nissan, BMW Mini, which offset the loss of Ford as a producer in Britain.
- The Jaguar and more importantly Land Rover brands have benefited from the success of premium brands, particularly in Europe, the USA and China. Ditto for the Aston Martin , Bentley and Rolls-Royce brands albeit at lower volumes. Thus, UK production is approaching once again its capacity of 2 million vehicles per year (Against 3 million for France) and the progress of the british and european market as a whole can only encourage this trend.
- In addition, the relocation of the Toyota Auris from Turkey to Britain in 2013, the arrival of the Nissan Leaf in 2014, the Jaguar XE in 2015, the Infiniti Q30 in 2016, have accentuated the phenomenon, even in conjunction the GM site of Luton lost the production of the Renault Trafic in 2014 (transfer to the French plant of Sandouville) and even though Mini transferred in 2014 part of its UK production to the Dutch plant in Born.
- Inovev expects a 2% increase in British production between 2015 and 2016.
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Production forecasts in France in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in France in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- The French car production has declined since the early 2000s, primarily because of several relocations towards Eastern Europe, Turkey and Spain. Thus, the Renault Clio, Renault Twingo, Peugeot 207, Peugeot 208, Citroen C3 Picasso, were all high-volume models that left from France to be produced elsewhere.
- The arrival of Dacia models in 2005 offset the decline in Renault sales in France and on the European continent, but these cars were all produced abroad: Romania, Morocco, Russia, India, Brazil, etc ... Finally, the arrival of small PSA models built with Toyota benefits the Czech automotive industry. This movement will not stop because the transfer of all the Citroën C3 and Peugeot 208 to Eastern Europe is scheduled for late 2016 or early 2017.
- Meanwhile, the marketing of SUVs produced from French manufacturers was late compared to growing demand, while the category of MPVs (like the Renault Scénic produced in France) began a sharp decline.
- Nevertheless, with the relocation of the Renault Trafic and Nissan NV300 in France, the recent renewal of models (Renault Espace and Talisman, Peugeot 2008 and 308 and the Smart Fortwo), the restart of the European market, the arrival of the new Renault Scénic at the end of 2016 and Renault's commitment to produce more PSA in France, French production should continue to grow moderately in 2016. Inovev forecasts a growth of 5% in 2016 compared to 2015.
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Production forecasts in Europe in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in Europe in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- European automotive production (29 countries) of PC + LCV in 2016 shall depend primarily by the level of sales in the area,of which a small percentage of growth is expected (around 3%) compared to the strong growth in 2015 (over 9%), the largest since fifteen years. European automotive production should therefore show small growth, which Inovev expects to be of around 2%.
- The production volume in Europe should therefore just pass the threshold of 18 million vehicles in 2016(against 17.9 million in 2015, 16.9 million in 2014 and 16.2 million in 2013), still a distant figure from 20 million reached in 2007.
- The slowdown in exports (mainly to China and North America) is expected to affect the level of European production, especially as the transfer of production to China and North America will add to the growth slowdown of these markets.
- The transfer of models from the Audi, BMW and Mercedes brands in particular will create a shortfall in European plants.However, as the level of production in 2016 will remain close to that of 2015, and no plant closure or opening is scheduled for that date in Europe, the plant utilization rates in the region will remain high (around 82%). This will be the second highest rate for 10 years behind that of 2007 (85%).
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