French market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)

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French market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)

 

- 2015 year seems - at last - to herald a marked recovery of French automotive market. Indeed, in the first nine months of the year, the volume of registrations (PC + LUV) has  experienced an increase of 5.4% compared to the same period in 2014.  Inovev expects a 5% increase over 2015.

- Economic growth is planned to rise gradually to 1.3% in 2016 and 1.6% in 2017,  as a result of lower oil prices, less fiscal contraction and cumulative effects of sustained monetary stimulus. However, declining house prices and weak business confidence are continuing to weigh on investment, and unemployment will decline only slightly.

- Consequently, Inovev expects in 2016 a slighter increase (around 2%) of the automotive market than in 2015.

- Following French new models - to be launched in 2016 and which can stimulate the market during the year- are worthy to mention:  Citroën C3, Citroën C3 Picasso, Peugeot 3008, Peugeot 5008, Renault Mégane, Renault Scénic and Renault Talisman (to be launched at the end of 2015).
The introduction of the new Nissan Micra which will be produced in France (Flins) could also boost sales of the brand, even if this model is planned only for the end of 2016.

15-21-4   

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Utilisation rate of Chinese plants are expected to surpass 70 percent in 2015

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Utilisation rate of Chinese plants are expected to surpass 70 percent in 2015

 

- China's automobile production capacity stood at 36.81 million units at the end of 2014 and is projected to increase by over 20 million units until 2020 to 58.24 million units, according to data compiled and processed by our partner in China.
Of which, passenger cars accounted for 25.03 million units at the end of 2014 and are expected to expand over 15 million units to 40.46 million units by 2020. As for mini vehicles, which include utility vehicles and mini trucks, capacity volume rose to 4.69 million units by the end of 2014 and is calculated to go up by 2.35 million units to  7.03 million units by 2020. In contrast, medium/large utility vehicles, which include medium/heavy trucks and medium/large buses, showed only a modest rise.

- As the Chinese automotive market has gone from rapid growth to marginal increase since 2011, operating ratio of automobile manufacturing plants dropped from 85 percent as of 2010 to 64 percent by 2014 as a result of runaway production capacity expansion despite meager increase in production volume.

- While Chinese factories stood at 65percent in 2014, they are expected to surpass 70 percent in 2015 thanks to robust SUV sales. The operating ratio of European carmakers is expected to drop from 97 percent in 2014 to around 90 percent in 2015 due to dull increase in VW's production volume in 2015. Looking at Japanese automakers, negative growth of Nissan and Toyota in 2015 is likely to push down year-round operating ratio. Amid general market slowdown, operating ratio is expected to further decline if carmakers go through with their planned capacity expansion projects. 

15-21-1   

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Assessment of North and South American plants over the first 6 months of 2015

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Assessment of North and South American plants over the first 6 months of 2015

 

- The assessment of car production (PC + LUV) in the Americas reveals a decrease of 2% in the first half of 2015 compared to the first half of 2014. This decrease is mainly due to the falling production rates of Brazil (-17%) and Argentina (-14%), which was not offset by higher North American production rates (USA, Mexico, Canada). Canada for that matter suffered from a decrease of 11% of its production volumes, mainly because of the fall in production of the Chrysler Town & Country and Dodge Caravan minivans.

- Among the top 20 by plants (Inovev counted 85 plants still operating in the region - excluding Colombia and Venezuela), a predominance of plants located in North America can be observed (mainly in the USA and Mexico) and a strong presence of GM (3 plants), Ford (3 plants) and FCA (3 plants) groups.

- Among the highest increases in production per plant, we note the strong performance of Shreveport, (+ 600% - 77 000 units) with the start of production of the Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon; of Goiana (+ 600% - 13 000 units) thanks to the start of production of Jeep in Brazil; of Araquari (+ 600% - 5 800 units) thanks to the start of production of BMW in Brazil; of Celaya (+ 575% - 78 000 units) with the start of production of Honda in Mexico; of Salamanca (+ 450% - 102 000 units) with the start of production of Mazda in Mexico and Resende (+ 305% - 21 500 units) and the start of production of Nissan in Brazil.

- Among the strongest decreases, we can observe the poor performance of Betim (Fiat) reaching 225 000 units (-37,5%) and Sao Caetano (GM) 36 000 units (-52%), two large plants located in Brazil; of Campana (Honda ) reaching 2200 units (-50%) in Argentina and Windsor in Canada reaching 77 000 units (-66%), following the collapse of the production of the Chrysler Town & Country and Dodge Caravan minivans.

15-19-10  

 

 

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German market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)

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German market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)

 

- The German automotive market (PC + LUV) is expected to reach a volume of 3.4 million units in the full year 2015, against 3.2 million the previous year, which represents an increase of nearly 6 % compared with 2014. In the first nine months of 2015, the market experienced a 5.3% increase.

- This increase is higher than expected. It highlights that Germany benefits from a large reserve of orders and favourable economic conditions.

- According to OECD, economic growth is scheduled to strengthen in 2016. It is indeed deemed that a robust labour market, low interest rates and low oil prices will  sustain private consumption. Weaker demand from emerging market economies will gradually be offset by stronger exports to other euro area economies.

- For 2016, Inovev expects a 2% increase of the German market, which represents a volume of nearly 3.5 million units (PC+ LUV).

- Following new German models, to be launched in 2016 and which can stimulate the market during the year, are worthy to mention: Mercedes E-Class, Ford Fiesta, Opel Astra (launched at the end 2015), Opel Meriva, Audi A4 (launched in 2015), Audi A5, VW CC, VW Polo and VW Tiguan. Most of these models will be launched before the end of this year.
15-21-2   

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Assessment of European plants over the first 6 months of 2015

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Assessment of European plants over the first 6 months of 2015

 

- The assessment of car production in Europe (PC + LUV in the 29 countries of Europe + Turkey) reveals an increase of 8.3% in the first half of 2015 compared to the first half of 2014, development that follows the curve on the European market over this period. This results in an plant utilization rate close to 85%, a figure comparable to that achieved in 2007, although several recent plant closures (Aulnay, Bochum, Genk) have helped achieve this result.


- The six plants that have increased their production volumes the most over the first half of 2014 were Born (+ 200% - 30 000 units), which recently started manufacturing the new generation Mini; Villaverde (+ 180% - 62 000 units), that manufactures the C4 Cactus; Melfi (+ 145% - 130 000 units) that manufactures the latest Jeep Renegade and Fiat 500X, Sandouville (+ 125% - 46 000 units) that manufactures the new Renault Trafic, Novo Mesto (+ 125% - 89 000 units) that manufactures the new Renault Twingo and Smart Forfour; and Zaragoza (+ 80% - 240 000 units) that manufactures the Mokka and the new Corsa. The new model effect and production transfers have been paramount for these six plants.


- By contrast, apart from the permanent shutdown of production in Bochum and Genk, some plants have experienced significant declines in production rates: Poissy (-25% - 119 500 units), due to the transfer of the Peugeot 208 to Trnava; Mirafiori (- 20% - 7 500 units) due to the fall in production of the Alfa Mito and Fiat Punto; Adapazari (-10% - 55 000 units) due to the fall of the production of the Toyota Corolla exported to Russia and Mangualde (-8% - 26 000 units) due to the end of life of the Citroën Berlingo and Peugeot Partner.


- The Volkswagen plant in Wolfsburg remains by far the largest European plant in terms of production volumes in the first semester of 2015 despite a decrease (-9% down to 450 000 units), ahead of Neckarsulm (Volkswagen Group) reaching just over 250 000 units (-3.5%), Sunderland (Renault-Nissan Group) to just under 250 000 units (-10%) and Zaragoza (GM Group) reaching 240 000 units (+ 92%) rejuvenated by the arrival of Mokka.


15-19-9  

 

 

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  1. Assessment of Production in Mexico (PC+LUV) for the first 6 months of 2015
  2. Assessment of Sales in Mexico (PC+LUV) for the first 6 months of 2015
  3. Assessment of Production in South Korea (PC+LUV) for the first 6 months of 2015
  4. Assessment of Sales in South Korea (PC+LUV) for the first 6 months of 2015
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