Japan market Forecast in 2016 (PC+LUV)
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Japan market Forecast in 2016 (PC+LUV)
- After a fairly decent year in 2014, the Japanese automotive market (PC + LUV) fell in 2015, with a decline that is expected to approach 10% throughout the year, to a level lower than 5 million units.
- The economic expansion derailed in 2015 due to a sharp slowdown in demand from China and other Asian countries and sluggish private consumption. According to the OECD, output growth is projected to pick up to 1% in 2016, as rising net wages support consumer spending.
- For the automotive market, a slight increase is noticeable since last summer. In 2016 Inovev foresees a slight restart of the market, with a growth of almost 3% compared to 2015.
- The ranking of carmakers will not change, with a strong predominance of Toyota, far beyond its competitors, Honda, Renault-Nissan and Suzuki. Mazda, Mitsubishi and Subaru being far behind.
The rate of imports in Japan remains one of the lowest recorded among major global markets (between 5% and 6% of the market) and it is not due to change in coming years.
The rate of imports in Japan remains one of the lowest recorded among major global markets (between 5% and 6% of the market) and it is not due to change in coming years.
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European market Forecast in 2016 (PC+LUV)
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European market Forecast in 2016 (PC+LUV)
- In 2015 the European car market 29 countries (PC + LUV) should experience a growth close to 8% compared to the previous year. The reboot of the European market will therefore happen much faster than expected.
- According to economic forecasts of the European Union, Europe (29 countries) should experience a GDP growth of 2% in 2016, reflecting a combination of beneficial factors: Oil prices which remain relatively low, a steady global growth, the euro which has continued to depreciate, and supportive economic policies in the EU.
- In 2016 Inovev expects an increase of 3% of European market. The European market should be greatly supported by Southern European markets (Spain and Italy), currently going through a catching up phase, and will also be supported by Eastern countries as they have a motorisation rate which is still quite low. The share of mature markets (Germany, Great Britain and France) in terms of European growth should be lower.
- Nevertheless, one should keep an eye on some countries in 2016. This is the case of Spain, whose PIVE plan, which led to a sharp increase in sales in 2014 and 2015 (+ 20% per year), will probably be stopped. This is also the case of Great Britain; the strong growth of recent years (+ 10% per year) will likely be weaker, as it is already the case in 2015.
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ASEAN: Intends to Optimize Production in Thailand, Indonesia
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ASEAN: Intends to Optimize Production in Thailand, Indonesia
- Isuzu Motors, a Japanese utility vehicle manufacturer, is positioning Thailand and Indonesia as a light utility vehicle and an emerging market-oriented utility vehicle production base respectively, setting up a tripolar global production system along with Japan. Since 2015, emphasis has been on stepping up exportation from the two Southeast Asian countries.
- In Thailand, Isuzu Motors revealed itsplan to increase combined annual production capacity of the Samrong and Gateway plants to 500,000 units by 2019. Half of the production of both plants is scheduled to go to the Thai market, while the other half is to be exported. In Indonesia, Isuzu Motors commenced operation of a new plant in January 2015 in Karawang regency, West Java province. Truck production was transferred to the new plant from PondokUngu in East Jakarta.
- Annualproduction capacity of the new plant is 52,000 units, 2.5-fold higher compared to the old facility. Prompted by reduced tariffs within ASEAN, Isuzu Motors set up a logistics center in the vicinity of the new plant which can store up to three weeks' worth of locally-procured parts. The new factory manufactures Elf light trucks and Giga medium trucks. Exportation starting from 2016 is under consideration.
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US market Forecast in 2016 (PC+LUV)
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US market Forecast in 2016 (PC+LUV)
- In 2015, the US automotive market (PC + LUV) should increase by 5% compared to 2014, reaching around 17.35 million units, a volume very close to its highest level reached in 2000 (17.4 million units).
- According to the OECD, GDP should continue to grow in 2016, driven by household demand and a low unemployment rate. Domestic demand will continue to be supported by good financial conditions, the improving of the job market and the boost to household purchasing power thanks to low energy prices and a stronger dollar. However, the boost from these influences should gradually slow down and will be damped by a weaker growth in exports due to sluggish external demand and the recent strengthening of the dollar.
- Although the US market is cyclic, it is highly probable that this market will increase slightly in 2016, reaching a new record (around 17.5 million units), representing a growth of 1%.
- The category of light trucks will have a great chance to supplant the sales volume of passenger cars, in a proportion close to 55%/45% (against 54%/46% in 2015). In this context, GM, Ford and FCA offer good development potential (these carmakers are very present - almost omnipresent - in the category of light trucks).
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Spanish market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)
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Spanish market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)
- For the first nine months of 2015, the Spanish automobile market has increased by 24%. The market may reach 1.2 million units this year and 1.3 million in 2016. However, it is still far from the figures for 2005-2006-2007 where the market was close to 1.8 million units.
- According to OECD, a robust economic recovery in Spain is planned to continue in 2016 and 2017, though at a gradually slowing pace. However the positive impact of euro depreciation, and lower oil and other commodity prices, will gradually dissipate. Borrowing rates for businesses and households will also continue to be low. These factors, together with the implementation of significant structural reforms, are increasing business confidence.
- For 2016, the Spanish automotive market will depend on the PIVE plan status (to be maintained or not), and its stopping date if UK government decides to stop it. In the case that the PIVE plan is stopped, Inovev forecasts a 7% increase of the market in 2016.
- Following new models, to be launched in 2016 and which can stimulate the Spanish market during the year, are worthy to mention : Ford Fiesta, Opel Astra (launched at the end of 2015), Renault Megane (locally produced), VW Polo (locally produced) and Seat Ibiza (locally produced).
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