Production forecasts in China in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in China in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- Since 2005, China's automobile production is growing rapidly.It rose from 5 million units that year to 13 million in 2009 and 22 million in 2013, becoming the largest producer in the world. In 2014, 23 million units threshold was reached (23.4 million). In 2015, China's production experienced for the first time in ten years a slowdown that is reflected by weak growth (23.7 million units).
- The months of April, May, June and July 2015 even experienced a decline compared to the same month in 2014.
- But it seems that the recent reduction of 50% off tax on the purchase of small cars (the charges being reduced from 10% to 5%) had a positive impact on the Chinese automotive market, and consequently on Chinese automotive production.It should be recalled that 97% of Chinese production is currently sold locally (only 3% is exported), a figure that also increased in the past two years.
- China has indeed increasing difficulty to sell its cars abroad, while many markets around the world are growing rapidly. This means that Chinese products do not quite match the global demand, but only match Chinese demand. In 2016, Inovev expects greater growth than in 2015 of approximately 4.5%which is in line with the last few months of 2015 (after the tax reduction started).
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Production forecasts in Japan in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in Japan in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- Since 2009, Japanese car production has entered a highly stable phase(If we disregard the year 2011 when the Japanese car industry suffered from the tsunami). It remains close to the threshold of 10 million units (PC + LCV) since 2012, and there are no signs of any big change for 2016.
- In 2015, the 10% decline in the Japanese market has led to a 7% drop in car production, as rising Japanese exports in fast growing markets partially offset the shortfall.
- In 2016, there are no plans for genuine revival of the Japanese market, car production located within Japan should therefore experience stability or a slight decrease (-0.5%).
- It is noteworthy that in 2016, Japanese models produced in Japan continue to be rebadged for foreign groups like the Citroën C-Zero and Peugeot Ion (Mitsubishi I-Miev base), Citroën C4 Aircross and Peugeot 4008 (Mitsubishi ASX base), Fiat 124 spider ( Mazda MX-5 base).
- It should be noted that in 2016, Japan consolidates its position as the largest producer of hydrogen vehicles,with the start of the Toyota Mirai (2000 units planned in 2016 against 700 in 2015), and the new Honda Clarity (between 500 and 1000 expected in 2016 against 0 in 2015).But the number of such vehicles will remain extremely low.
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Production forecasts in Italy in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in Italy in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- The Italian car production declined a lot after 2007, primarily because of several relocations: towards Poland (Fiat Panda, Fiat 500, LanciaYpsilon) to Serbia (Fiat 500L) and to Turkey (Fiat Fiorino, Doblo, Tipo). Moreover, the decline of Fiat sales in the C segment (Stilo, Bravo) and of Lancia on segments_ C-D-E (Delta, Lybra, Thesis), and even Alfa Romeo in a whole accentuated the decline in Italian production.
- Finally, the sharp decline of the Italian market after the financial crisis, has not favored the revival of the Italian automotive industry that remains its largest supplier. Thus, the Italian automobile production experienced its low point in 2013 (639 000 units), 50% below the level of 2007. The years 2014 and 2015 have reversed the trend, because the domestic market is now restarting, like the European market (after five years of decline).
- In addition,since the purchase of Chrysler, the Fiat Group can now have a global production policy, callowing it to produce in Italy global vehicles like the recent Jeep Renegade and Fiat 500X produced in Melfi, the future Alfa Romeos planned for 2016-2017 and Maserati that saw its sales multiplied by 6 in five years. Italian production should therefore come closer to 900 000 units in 2016.Inovev forecasts a growth of Italian production of 10% between 2015 and 2016.
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Production forecasts in Spain in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in Spain in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- In 2012 and 2013, the Spanish automobile production was at its lowest levels of the last decade. Spain has suffered both from the fall of the domestic market, but also the fall in of other European markets of which it remains heavily dependent. Exports have declined greatly, Spanish production has remained at very low levels, even falling behind France in 2012.
- The years 2014 and 2015 were as Inovev had foreseen those of the stimulus, because on one hand the domestic market has restarted (through the introduction of new scrappage schemes - the PIVE Plan), on the other hand exports have also restarted (thanks to the reboot of European markets), and finally Spanish plants benefited from the contribution of new models coming from the outside, like the Opel Mokka (from Korea), Ford Mondeo (from Belgium), _ Ford Galaxy / S-Max (from Belgium) and the Ford Transit Connect (from Turkey).
- The Renault Captur (arrived at Valladolid in 2013) is experiencing for its part a great success that benefits Spanish production. The recent Renault Kadjar (arrived at Palencia in 2015) is renewing this good performance. The Citroën C4 Cactus is experiencing a decent success. Late 2016, the Citroen C3 Picasso will also arrive to Spain from Slovakia. Inovev therefore expects a growth of 5% of production in Spain between 2015 and 2016,almost reaching the peek level achieved in 2007.
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Production forecasts in France in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in France in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- The French car production has declined since the early 2000s, primarily because of several relocations towards Eastern Europe, Turkey and Spain. Thus, the Renault Clio, Renault Twingo, Peugeot 207, Peugeot 208, Citroen C3 Picasso, were all high-volume models that left from France to be produced elsewhere.
- The arrival of Dacia models in 2005 offset the decline in Renault sales in France and on the European continent, but these cars were all produced abroad: Romania, Morocco, Russia, India, Brazil, etc ... Finally, the arrival of small PSA models built with Toyota benefits the Czech automotive industry. This movement will not stop because the transfer of all the Citroën C3 and Peugeot 208 to Eastern Europe is scheduled for late 2016 or early 2017.
- Meanwhile, the marketing of SUVs produced from French manufacturers was late compared to growing demand, while the category of MPVs (like the Renault Scénic produced in France) began a sharp decline.
- Nevertheless, with the relocation of the Renault Trafic and Nissan NV300 in France, the recent renewal of models (Renault Espace and Talisman, Peugeot 2008 and 308 and the Smart Fortwo), the restart of the European market, the arrival of the new Renault Scénic at the end of 2016 and Renault's commitment to produce more PSA in France, French production should continue to grow moderately in 2016. Inovev forecasts a growth of 5% in 2016 compared to 2015.
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