Production forecasts in Great Britain in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in Great Britain in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- British car production has experienced uninterrupted growth since drop in 2009, meaning that today it is close behind the levels of French production. British production is experiencing a good health thanks to the success of the Nissan Qashqai, Juke Nissan, BMW Mini, which offset the loss of Ford as a producer in Britain.
- The Jaguar and more importantly Land Rover brands have benefited from the success of premium brands, particularly in Europe, the USA and China. Ditto for the Aston Martin , Bentley and Rolls-Royce brands albeit at lower volumes. Thus, UK production is approaching once again its capacity of 2 million vehicles per year (Against 3 million for France) and the progress of the british and european market as a whole can only encourage this trend.
- In addition, the relocation of the Toyota Auris from Turkey to Britain in 2013, the arrival of the Nissan Leaf in 2014, the Jaguar XE in 2015, the Infiniti Q30 in 2016, have accentuated the phenomenon, even in conjunction the GM site of Luton lost the production of the Renault Trafic in 2014 (transfer to the French plant of Sandouville) and even though Mini transferred in 2014 part of its UK production to the Dutch plant in Born.
- Inovev expects a 2% increase in British production between 2015 and 2016.
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Production forecasts in Europe in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in Europe in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- European automotive production (29 countries) of PC + LCV in 2016 shall depend primarily by the level of sales in the area,of which a small percentage of growth is expected (around 3%) compared to the strong growth in 2015 (over 9%), the largest since fifteen years. European automotive production should therefore show small growth, which Inovev expects to be of around 2%.
- The production volume in Europe should therefore just pass the threshold of 18 million vehicles in 2016(against 17.9 million in 2015, 16.9 million in 2014 and 16.2 million in 2013), still a distant figure from 20 million reached in 2007.
- The slowdown in exports (mainly to China and North America) is expected to affect the level of European production, especially as the transfer of production to China and North America will add to the growth slowdown of these markets.
- The transfer of models from the Audi, BMW and Mercedes brands in particular will create a shortfall in European plants.However, as the level of production in 2016 will remain close to that of 2015, and no plant closure or opening is scheduled for that date in Europe, the plant utilization rates in the region will remain high (around 82%). This will be the second highest rate for 10 years behind that of 2007 (85%).
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Inovev foresees a production volume of 35 000 units for the Volvo S90
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Inovev foresees a production volume of 35 000 units for the Volvo S90
- The Swedish manufacturer Volvo, a subsidiary of the Chinese Geely group, has launched its new large sedan from segment E, the S90, which replaces the S80 which dates back to 2006. An estate derived from the S90, named the V90, will be launched in a few weeks. The S90, V90 and XC90 will share many components.
- The new Volvo sedan which contributes to the top of the range of the brand with the XC90 launched last year, is a competitor to the Mercedes E-Class, BMW 5 Series and Audi A6, and also to a lesser degree for the Jaguar XF and Genesis G80.
- The Volvo S90 uses the modular platform SPA already used by the XC90 SUV. The sedan also uses the engines in this segment E SUV , ie the T6 petrol engine (4-cylinder 2.0 l of 320hp) and T8 (4-cylinder 2.0 l hybrid of 400hp) and the diesel engines D4 (4-cylinder 2.0 l 190hp) and D5 (4-cylinder 2.0 liter 225hp). Please note that Volvo has gradually abandoned its 5 and 6 cylinder engines (they still exist temporarily on the S60 / V60 and XC60) now focusing on downsizing (smaller engines with turbochargers).
- The Volvo S90 (as the V90 estate and the XC90 SUV) is manufactured on the Swedish site of the brand, located in Gothenburg. It is likely that these models are also to be produced in China in the near future. Volvo has in fact in this country plants that are largely underutilized, built by its Chinese owner Geely. In the more distant future, these models could also be produced in the US in the future Volvo plant whose opening is scheduled for 2018.
- Inovev foresees a production volume of nearly 35 000 units per year for this model from 2016.
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Production forecasts in Germany in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in Germany in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- The German car production was in the last two years at its best levels since 2007, and apart from the low point in 2009, as in most European countries, Germany reaches every year around 6 million vehicles produced. These figures are mainly due to the growth of the premium brands Audi, BMW, Porsche and Mercedes, which increased both in Europe and in the world (via exports from Germany). In addition, the relocation of Ford and Opel models back to Germany (Fiesta, Focus, C-Max and Zafira) contributed to maintaining the good level of German production for several years.
- One can also add thatthe decision made by these manufacturers not to sharply relocate German production to other countries played in his favor.However, Inovev do not expect significant growth in German production in 2016, since Mercedes produces since 2015 a part of the C-Class in the USA, Audi will produce the Q5 in Mexico in 2016 and that BMW will soon be producing some of its models in Mexico also.
- Another important element:the gradual transfer of Chinese exports to a local production in China, at the request of the Chinese government. German production should therefore stabilize from 2016 and know only a growth close to 0% between 2015 and 2016, despite the arrival of the new Mercedes E-Class and Audi A5.
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The position of carmakers in Turkey
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The position of carmakers in Turkey
- The tensions between Europe and Turkey about the political situation in Syria and Iraq, could intensify particularly following opposed positions of the various stakeholders. The economic impact would be important for Turkey inso far as a set of industries are implanted locally, including the automotive industry.
- Six manufacturers currently have auto plants manufacturing on Turkish territory, most of which (75%) is exported to Europe. Renault, FCA, Ford, Toyota, Hyundai and Honda have six plants in the western part of the country. An escalation of the diplomatic situation could pose difficulties for production in these plants.
- Manufacturers have indeed withdrawal plans to move their manufacturing to other regions, but only two could move without too much difficulty: Renault, which has sites in Flins (France) and Novo Mesto (Slovenia) for the repatriation of the Clio, and FCA that has the Mirafiori (Italy) and Kragujevac (Serbia) plants for the repatriation of the Doblo and Fiorino, and Cassino (Italy) for the repatriation of the Tipo. These plants have underutilized capacities. Honda could also repatriate production to its British plant of Swindon.
- For Toyota, Ford and Hyundai, it would be more complicated, because those manufacturers do not have enough capacity in Europe to do the transfer. It would be necessary to consider manufacturing in Asia (Japan, Korea, India), which would move production further away from all the countries purchasing these models, because of course, none of these manufacturers are planning to build plants in Europe.
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