Toyota remains the world number one in the first quarter of 2013
 
- Toyota remains the world leader in terms of sales in the first quarter of 2013, with 2.43 million vehicles sold (- 2.2%), followed by General Motors (2.36 million units sold, +3.6 %) and Volkswagen (2.27 million, +5.1%).

 - Toyota has been severely affected by the diplomatic conflict between Tokyo and Beijing last year as well as by the end of subsidies for the purchase of "eco-friendly" cars in Japan. Its sales in China have declined by 13% in the first quarter of 2013 (compared to the first quarter of 2012), and those in Japan by 15%. In Europe, Toyota saw its sales decline by 13.7% in the first quarter of 2013. In the United States, Toyota has however increased by 7% in the first quarter of 2013. In other parts of the world, Toyota saw its sales increase overall, which has allowed the world's leading carmaker to globally limit its decline in sales to 2.2%.

 - Nevertheless, given that GM and VW sales have increased in the first quarter of 2013, the gap with Toyota was significantly reduced compared to the recorded full-year 2012 results. It has been observed that last year, the Toyota Group sold 9.70 million vehicles, the GM group 9.29 million and VW group 9.07 million. In these circumstances, it is impossible to say who will be the leader in worldwide sales over the entire year 2013. Indeed, at the current rate, the three groups would be side by side at the end of the year with each of them selling 9.50 million vehicles.

13-20-10

 

Japanese carmakers have still to catch up their delay in China
 

Following the diplomatic conflict between China and Japan concerning the bordering territories of the two countries, The sales of Japanese carmakers in China have been boycotted by a portion of their customers. Their production volume therefore collapsed between September 2012 and March 2013, but since January 2013 the collapse is tending to slow down.


Let us recall that the production of Japanese carmakers in China is intended only for the local market (except for a few Honda Jazz that traveled to Europe) and therefore could not offset the collapse through exports.


The four major Japanese carmakers manufacturing in China (Toyota, Nissan, Honda and Mazda) had not yet caught up with their delayed production by March 2013, but since April 2013 three of them (Toyota , Nissan and Honda) have managed to catch up on their loss. But the production lost between September 2012 and March 2013 is permanently lost, because the customers that left during this period are now customers of the competition (Hyundai, Kia, GM, Volkswagen and PSA). 100% Chinese carmakers do not seem to have benefited greatly from the momentary weakness of the Japanese.


This six months production loss is a deadweight loss for Toyota, Nissan, Honda and Mazda who however had a good 2012 year in terms of global sales. Their normal rate of production in China is expected to be regained in the coming months.

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 Data source: File #55 - Registrations in the World by makes 

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Chinese brands are moving into Russia
 
Although in the European Union (27 countries), Chinese brands have never managed to win so far, despite some unsuccessful attempts and despite the arrival of Great Wall as a car producer in Bulgaria (2012) since 2010 they have had a great success in Russia.

Sales (PC + LCV) increased from 20,000 units in 2010 to 40,000 units in 2011, 80,000 units in 2012 and probably 90,000 units in 2013. Six brands account for the majority of these sales: Great Wall, Geely, Lifan, Chery, FAW and BYD.

The success of Chinese cars on the Russian market is most certainly due to the fact that they correspond to the local demand. These cars at very low prices are the direct competitors of the Lada, but with a fresher style and perhaps even more attractive looking.

It is possible that Chinese car sales in Russia will exceed 100,000 units in 2014 or 2015, and that would be the first country outside China to register as many Chinese cars.

Let us recall that the Chery launch with the Qoros is scheduled for 50,000 sales per year in Europe, and therefore it is clear that Russia remains the main gateway to the European continent for Chinese brands.

13-20-7

 

Dongfeng buyouts 40% of Fujian Auto in order to own the Souest brand
 

The Chinese government has repeatedly urged Chinese carmakers to come together in order to fight against the world's leading carmakers such as Toyota, GM, Volkswagen, Renault-Nissan and Hyundai-Kia (see "The Chinese groups' multi-brand strategy called into question"). Currently, China has a hundred different carmakers, some of which include a number of specific brands.


A few years ago, we saw Nanjing MG come under the control of SAIC, but the Chinese are still few groups, each carmaker trying to preserve its own prerogatives in a growing market that has not yet fixed the sale volume per brand. Each brand is trying to be among the most widespread, before even considering the purchase of a smaller company or other Sino-Chinese partnerships.


Today, Dongfeng (the third Chinese automaker including the JV with foreign carmakers) took the initiative to buy 40% of Fujian Motor, the owner of Souest. Souest sold 80,000 cars in China last year and could sell 100,000 this year (35,000 in the first four months of 2013). Its market share is less than 1% of the whole Chinese market. The Dongfeng carmaker sold 370,000 cars under its own brand in 2012 (2.5% market share) and over 2 million cars thanks to a partnership with Nissan, Kia, Honda and PSA.


With Soueast, Dongfeng could approach 5% market share in China while having a new plant with a capacity of 150,000 vehicles per year.

13-20-9

 

From 2014 Opel will make the Zafira in the Rüsselsheim plant
 
GM has chosen the Rüsselsheim plant to produce the Zafira minivan after the closure of the Bochum plant in 2014.

It must be remembered that the Rüsselsheim plant is the main Opel plant which currently produces the Opel Insignia and some Astras. The production of the Astra in Rüsselsheim is still scheduled to be stopped in 2014 or 2015 and transferred to Gliwice in Poland. This makes sense: premium models (Insignia, Zafira) are and will be produced in Germany, where costs are higher than those of Poland.

Advanced scenarios two months ago on the Inovev website, concerning the transfer of the Zafira production to Gliwice (GM) or Rennes (PSA plant in France) have not been confirmed by Opels management.

Transfer to Gliwice made sense as between 2005 and 2011 the Zafira was previously made on this site, but the management of Opel  thought the Astra and the Cascada would be enough to run the plant in Gliwice (200,000 units per year).

Transfer to Rennes also made sense as the next Citroën C5 was initially meant to migrate to Rüsselsheim, but since this option was abandoned a month and half ago (after the new platform separation policy between upscale PSA models and those of GM Europe), there was no reason for the Zafira to migrate to Rennes.

13-20-8

 

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