The Vietnamese market in 2022
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The Vietnamese market in 2022
- The Vietnamese automotive market remained at a very low level for a long time, around 50,000 vehicles per year, all imported. The start of the Vietnamese market really began in 2013 and its growth has only intensified since then, reaching 200,000 in 2016, 250,000 in 2019 and 300,000 in 2022. We are therefore witnessing a real market in creation, as China from 2005, which tends to show that a middle class able to buy a car is emerging in Vietnam.
- It is in this context that assembly plants (CKD) began to multiply in Vietnam in the 2010s, which makes it possible to assert that today 70% of vehicles registered in this country come from local factories, while only 30% comes from imports.
- In 2019, local conglomerate Vingroup built a Vinfast car factory in Haiphong. It is the first automobile factory developed by a Vietnamese company. But Vinfast models are sold in low quantities today (less than 5% market share in 2022).
- The main brands sold in Vietnam are Japanese. Toyota, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Honda and Suzuki represent 71% of the Vietnamese market in 2022. The Koreans Hyundai and Kia represent 21% of the Vietnamese market. The Japanese and Koreans therefore represent 92% of this market. The Nissan brand stopped selling cars in Vietnam in 2020. The GM group stopped its distribution in 2018, but Ford continues with 4% of the market in 2022. Stellantis also holds 4% of the Vietnamese market, via the Peugeot brand. It is to be noted that Chinese brands are currently absent from this market.
Inovev forecasts 100,000 units per year of the new Ford Explorer BEV in 2030
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Inovev forecasts 100,000 units per year of the new Ford Explorer BEV in 2030
- The American carmakers GM, Ford and Chrysler have experienced difficulties in the European market since the 1970s. The Chrysler group sold its European subsidiaries to PSA in 1978 and the GM group sold its to PSA in 2017. Only the Ford group survives in Europe with its European subsidiaries, but its production rates have collapsed on the Old Continent. In the last twenty years alone, the fall has been colossal. The production volume has thus fallen from 1.2 million passenger cars to less than 600,000 units in 2022.
- The (late) decision to switch to battery electric technology has accelerated the phenomenon, as after the discontinuation of the Mondeo and Galaxy/S-Max, Ford recently announced that the production of the Fiesta would be discontinued in 2023 and of the Focus in 2025. To replace the entire old range, Ford has indicated that it will launch six battery electric vehicles, including two produced in Cologne (Germany), two in Craiova (Romania), one in Valencia (Spain) and one in Kocaeli (Turkey).
- The first has just been introduced. It is a 4.46m long C-segment SUV based on the MEB platform of the Volkswagen ID4. This new model, called Explorer, will be produced at the Cologne site, where it will replace the Ford Fiesta this summer.
- The product name Explorer already existed to designate a large E-segment plug-in hybrid SUV 5.06m long and produced in the United States, a small number being exported to Europe. This model is expected to continue its commercial career for some time. For the new BEV Explorer, Inovev forecasts a volume of 50,000 units in 2024, then a gradual increase in sales to reach 100,000 units per year from 2030.
Evolution of BEV sales in Europe, China and the USA
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Evolution of BEV sales in Europe, China and the USA
- The BEV market has grown significantly in the three major markets directly impacted by the development of these vehicles: Europe, China and the United States.
- In Europe, the average market share which was 0.6% of total passenger car registrations in 2017, went from 1.2% in 2018 to 2.3% in 2019, 6.2% in 2020, 10.4 % in 2021 and 14% in 2022. Volumes increased from 100,671 units in 2017 to 191,295 in 2018, 364,014 in 2019, 745,760 in 2020, 1,218,360 in 2021 and 1,575,079 in 2022.
- In China, the average market share which was 1.9% of total passenger car registrations in 2017 rose to 3.5% in 2018 then 3.8% in 2019, 4.7% in 2020, 12.8 % in 2021 and 21.3% in 2022. Volumes increased from 470,573 units in 2017 to 749,244 in 2018, 820,958 in 2019, 955,985 in 2020, 2,751,755 in 2021 and 5,029,207 in 2022.
- In the United States, the average market share which was 0.6% of total passenger car registrations in 2017 (as in Europe) rose to 1.4% in 2018 then 1.6% in 2019, 1.8 % in 2020, 3.2% in 2021 and 5.8% in 2022 (2.5 times less than in Europe). Volumes increased from 104,487 units in 2017 to 227,120 in 2018, 237,941 in 2019, 260,361 in 2020, 478,763 in 2021 and 811,083 in 2022.
- We note that in Europe, the months of January show a sharp drop each year, and that in China a sharp drop occurred in January 2023 for the first time. This decrease is attributable to annual holidays in China as well as possibly a reduction of subsidies.
Inovev forecasts 300,000 units per year of the new Hyundai Kona in 2030
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Inovev forecasts 300,000 units per year of the new Hyundai Kona in 2030
- Hyundai presented the new generation of its compact SUV, the Kona, produced in thermal version in South Korea and in battery electric version in Europe (Czech Republic). Its launch onto market should take place at the beginning of next summer. In recent years, the electric version accounted for 20% of total Kona production. The new generation should do better and reach a share of at least 30%.
- The new generation is much longer than the old, reaching 4.35 m in length, 15 cm longer than the old generation, which now places it in the C-segment market, such as the recent Kia Niro (which shares the same Hyundai-Kia Group K3 platform) whose length reaches 4.42 m. In fact, the new Kona is as long as the old Kia Niro (C-segment). It has more interior space than the old Hyundai Kona.
- In terms of motorization, the new Kona is available in a full hybrid version (HEV) and in a battery electric version (BEV), but the thermal and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) versions are not scheduled by the carmaker, while the Kia Niro is PHEV and BEV versions.
- Compared to the previous generation, the prices of the new Kona take a significant jump, even surpassing those of the Kia Niro. Inovev forecasts 300,000 sales of the new Kona per year from 2030, including 200,000 units in the hybrid version and 100,000 in the battery electric version by 2030 (with a sales volume in 2024 of 50,000 units), which will remain produced in the Czech Republic, like the older generation.
Evolution of PHEV sales in Europe, China and the USA
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Evolution of PHEV sales in Europe, China and the USA
- The PHEV market has made great progress in Europe and China, while in the United States the growth is still quite limited.
- In Europe, the average market share which was 0.7% of total passenger car registrations in 2017, went from 1.1% in 2018 then 1.3% in 2019, 5.2% in 2020, 8.9 % in 2021 and 9% in 2022. Volumes increased from 112,849 units in 2017 to 171,485 in 2018, 199,707 in 2019, 619,129 in 2020, 1,045,022 in 2021 and 1,013,827 in 2022.
- In China, the average market share which was 0.4% of total passenger car registrations in 2017 rose to 1.2% in 2018 then 1.2% in 2019, 1.2% in 2020, 2.8 % in 2021 and 6.5% in 2022. Volumes increased from 110,699 units in 2017 to 249,031 in 2018, 224,215 in 2019, 244,393 in 2020, 597,752 in 2021 and 1,530,479 in 2022.
- In the United States, the average market share, which was 0.5% of total passenger car registrations in 2017, varied to 0.7% in 2018 then 0.5% in 2019, 0.4% in 2020, 1.1% in 2021 and 1.4% in 2022. Volumes increased from 90,091 units in 2017 to 113,650 in 2018, 83,660 in 2019, 64,521 in 2020, 164,152 in 2021 and 189,486 in 2022.
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