Assessment of Chinese Production (PC+LUV) over the first 6 months of 2015

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Assessment of Chinese Production (PC+LUV) over the first 6 months of 2015

 

- In the first half of 2015, Chinese production (PC+LUV) increased by 2.6% reaching 12.1 million units (against 11.8 million units last year). We can hence see a slowdown in Chinese growth (+17.7% in 2012, +7.3% in 2013, +5,4% in 2014 and less than 3% in 2015). Production of passenger cars was up by 6.4% reaching 10,3 million units) while those of light utility vehicles went down by 14,9% (1.8 million units). The change in Chinese production follows the changes in the Chinese market, whose growth has also slowdown since 2012.


- The VW Group remained the leader in terms of production (+ 2.7% to 1.86 million units), followed by GM (+ 5% to 1.84 million units), Hyundai-Kia (-3.1% to 0.83 million units), Changan (+ 8% to 0.66 million units), Toyota (+ 5.4% to 0.46 million units), Renault-Nissan (-4.9% to 0, 45 million units), Ford (+ 11.6% to 0.44 million units) and Honda (-3% to 0.42 million units). Independent Chinese manufacturers together accounted for 47.5% of production PC and LUVs, but only 32.5% of PC production. However, PC increased slightly compared to last year.
For Joint Ventures, the SAIC Group remained the leader (1.65 million units) ahead of DFM (1.55 million) and FAW (1.3 million).


- SUVs are constantly growing and currently represent 12% of the PC and UV production and 14% of PC production.


- By model, the WulingHongguang small MPV remained the leader (-18% to 324 000 units), ahead of the VW Lavida sedan (-2% to 199 000 units), the VW Jetta sedan (up 18% to 176 000 units), the Baojun 730 the recent sedan of the GM group (175 000 units), which made a dramatic breakthrough, the SUV Great Wall H6 (+ 23% to 174 000 units), the VW Santana sedan (-2% to 162 000 units), the Hyundai Elantra sedan (+ 10% to 148 000 units), the VW Sagitar sedan (-2% to 147 000 units) and Nissan Sylphy sedan (-2% to 146 000 units).


15-19-5-1  
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Production assessment of the 10 global groups in the first half of 2015

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Production assessment of the 10 global groups in the first half of 2015

 

- The assessment of global production (PC+LUV) of the leading 10 automotive groups in the first half of 2015 compared to the first half of 2014 reveals a strengthening of the VW group that is steering away from its two challengers Toyota and GM. In 4th place, the Renault Nissan group manages to stay in front of the Hyundai-Kia group that actually benefited from record high growth in the first half of the year. In 6th place, the Ford group steers further away from FCA (that recorded the highest decrease amongst it competitors, Honda (decreased), PSA (increased in the first half of the year) and Suzuki (stayed stable).


- Changes in the market have had a huge impact on production levels of these different groups. The increase of European, American and Korean markets has led to the increase of Hyundai-Kia (+7.4%) and to a lesser extent that of Renault-Nissan (+2.1%). PSA (+4.9%) mainly benefited from the increase of the European market where it is one of the leading players. The decrease of FCA (-7%) is mainly due to the decrease of the Brazilian and Argentine markets. Honda (-3.1%) and Toyota’s decrease (-4.9%) is mainly due the fall of the Japanese market. The unchanged/small decrease of Ford (0.1%), VW (-0.2%) and GM (-1.3%) groups is mainly due to the slowdown of the Chinese market where these three manufactures are well established. The decrease of the Russian market has had a negative impact on all of these groups. The effect of new model launches had a positive impact for Hundai-Kia, PSA and Renault-Nissan.


15-19-3  

 

 

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Comparison of Premium brands across the globe

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Comparison of Premium brands across the globe

 

- The market for premium vehicles increased by 10% in the first half of 2015 (compared to the first half of 2014), reaching 4.3 million units against 3.9 million units last year. Three brands represent two thirds of the market for premium vehicles: BMW, Audi and Mercedes. The last third is represented by many smaller volume brands such as Volvo, Land Rover, Lexus, Infinity, Acura, Jaguar, Porsche, Alfa, Lancia, DS…

- How do the first 3 premium brands rank? In the first haft of 2015, BMW is the leading premium brand globally with 954 000 units (+8.3% compared to last year) ahead of Mercedes (899 000 units, +22.6%) and Audi (893 000 units, -1.6%). Mercedes has hence overtaken Audi in the last couple of months, after being in third position for many years. The success of the Active and the Grand Tourer enabled BMW to stay the leader of this segment.

- Mercedes is the only carmaker of the three premium manufacturers to increase its production in China (+68% in the first half of 2015), while BMW and Audi stayed stable (with respectively -0.5% and -2%). In other word, Mercedes production in the US double year on year thanks to the arrival of the C class on the assembly lines of Tuscaloosa which didn’t decrease production volume of the notorious Bremen plant. Audi suffered from the A4 reaching the end of its life cycle (110 000 units produced in Europe in the first half of 2015 against 120 000 last year), its replacement being launched next fall its possible that the ranking of the top three Premium manufacturers may change at the end of the year.

15-19-2  

 

 

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What development plans are possible for the DS brand globally?

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What development plans are possible for the DS brand globally?

 

- Sales of the DS brand (PSA group) have further declined in 2014 (109 000 global sales, decreasing 6%) after having already reduced in 2013 (116 000 global sales against 117 000 in 2012). Over the first 6 months of 2015, sales reached 55 000 units, which bodes for 106 000 sales for the entire year 2015.

- The French Premium brand saw development and expansion issues in the first years of its launch (for better understanding, Inovev includes the Citroen DS3, DS4 and DS5 under the DS brand since 2010).

- The split of DS sales globally for 2014 is: 84 000 units in Europe (77% of sales), 23 000 in China (21% of sales) and 2 000 in other regions (2% of sales). In the first half of 2015 sales seem to be better spread out between the different markets, Europe accounting for 73% of sales and China accounting for 25%.

- By model, the DS3 represented 49% of global sales, the DS4 represented 18%, the DS5 represented 30% and the DS6 only 3%.In the first half of 2015 these shares changed slightly: DS3 represents 48% of sales, the DS4 17%, the DS5 16% and the DS6 represents 19%... Thanks to China. The DS6 is in fact only sold in China (it is also the only SUV of the brand) where it is moderately successful. Having said this, global sales volumes of the DS brand are closer to those of Jaguar (75 000 units) and Lancia (75 000 units) than those of BMW (1,8 million units), Audi (1,7 million units) or Mercedes (1,5 million units).

- What development plans are possible for the DS brand globally?
1.Renew the current range . The three models currently sold in Europe were launched in 2009 (DS3), 2010 (DS4) and 2011 (DS5) which means that at the latest these vehicle should be replaced is respectively 2015, 2016 and 2017. Unfortunately, the DS4 and DS5 have just had a facelift, which means that they won’t be replaced for another couple of years. The DS3 will have to be replaced by late 2016.
2.Harmonise the range. China is already marketing a DS5 Saloon which is different to the European DS5 and a SUV DS6. These models should be marketed in Europe and other models (especially the SUV) should come and extend the range. Unfortunately the DS product plan has nothing planned until 2016 and very few models before 2018.
3.It is true that it took Audi 30 years before becoming a renowned Premium brand, but for the DS brand the next couple of years will be tough, since it will have make do with its current models. The DS3 will not be able to support the brand single handily. Unless DS comes up with a new strategy like that of Mini by building a whole new range based on the DS3, which seems like a high risk plan.
4.Target other markets. Even if it is hypothetical to target the US, other markets are potentially interesting for a premium brand. The Chinese market does not guarantee a double-digit growth in the coming years and the European market is very long to enter for a new brand.

15-19-4  

 

 

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Assessment of US sales (PC+UV) for the first six months of 2015

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Assessment of US sales (PC+UV) for the first six months of 2015

 

- In the first half of 2015, the US market (PC + UV) increased by 2.8% to almost 8.6 million units, compared to the same period last year. Unlike local car production, sales of commercial vehicles rose (+ 8% reaching 4.7 million units), while sales of passenger cars stagnated at nearly 3.9 million units.

- Like Europe, sales of SUVs were up (+ 12.7% reaching 3 million units) while those of MPV were down (-15.2% decreasing to 275 000 units). Pick ups continued to grow (+ 11% reaching 982 000 units). The D segment (EU definition) is the largest in the US market and rose by 5.7% (to 3.3 million units), driven by the renewal of SUVs. Its interesting to note the growth of the urban segment (segment B), which increased by 12.5% to 380 000 units, which mainly benefited Japanese brand vehicles.

- Most mainstream brands in this  market have benefited from the growth of the American market, whose leaders are: Ford (+ 1.5% reaching 1.3 million units), Chevrolet (+ 2.5% reaching 1.05 million of units) and Toyota (5.2% reaching 1.04 million units). In the FCA group, while Chrysler experienced strong growth (+ 21% reaching 177 000 units), Dodge was down (-16.2% decreasing to 257 000 units). It is interesting to point out the performance of the first premium brand in the country, Lexus, growing by 14.5% (159 000 units), overtaking BMW (-1.4% decreasing to 155 000 units).

- By model, the F series remained the market leader, despite a slight drop in sales (-2.4% decreasing to 357 000 units). Its competitor, the Chevrolet Silverado progressed by 14.6% (276 000 units). Finally, the Chrysler 200 experienced strong growth, recently renewed, it saw its sales jump by 136% to 106 500 units.
 

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15-18-10b 

 

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  1. The US EV market (100% Electric+Hybrids) for the first 6 months of 2015
  2. Assessment of UK sales (PC+UV) for the first six months of 2015
  3. Assessment of US production (PC+UV) for the first six months of 2015
  4. Assessment of French sales (PC+UV) for the first six months of 2015
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