Dutch market forecast in 2015 (PC + LUV)

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Dutch market forecast in 2015 (PC + LUV)

- Sales inside the Dutch automotive market (PC + LUV) have declined by nearly 35%  between 2000 and 2013. With a level of 470 000 vehicles in 2013 (against 700 000 in 2000), the market is expected to end 2014 with a decrease of 2% (reaching 460 000 units), the end of 2013 was distorted by anticipated purchases prior to the introduction of a series of new taxes on vehicle pricing.


- In 2015, the Dutch market may trigger a modest restart (+ 3% expected by Inovev in 2015) and settle at a level close to 470 000 units. The purchase of vehicles is becoming less and less important. A phenomenon found in Europe but much more present in the Netherlands, with on one hand, the development of public transport or alternative transport and on the other, at a lesser extent the social status associated with vehicles. From an economic point of view, the growth in 2015 expected by the CPB (Centraal Plan Bureau) should be of 1.25% in 2015. The demand from professionals should not be greater than in previous years .


- The Dutch market, which imports 100% of its models, is one of the European markets where vehicles from segments A and B are the most numerous. They make up 53% of the market in 2013, a figure rarely equalled in other European markets (the average for this type of vehicle in the EU was 43% in 2013).


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Ford unveils the new S-Max

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Ford unveils the new S-Max

- The Ford S-Max is the carmaker’s MPV from segment D, located above the C-Max (segment C, available in two wheelbases) and the B-Max (segment B, available in one wheelbase).


- The new generation of the S-Max unveiled today (and based on the global C/D platform of the new Mondeo) follows the version launched in 2006 and restyled in 2010, which had declined sharply in recent years, particularly because of competition from the SUV market. In 2013, Ford sold 46 000 Galaxy / S-Max in Europe against 100 000 in 2007.


- Likewise as for the 2006 generation, the new S-Max will be declined across a Galaxy version, which will be unveiled in a few weeks. The new S-Max has 1.5 Ecoboost and 2.0 Ecoboost petrol engine and a diesel 1.6 TDCi and 2.0 TDCi. A gasoline-electric hybrid version version could be launched later on.


- The new S-Max will be produced as of January 2015 in Valencia, Spain (alongside the Mondeo, Kuga and Transit Connect). Ford expects to sell 100 000 S-Max / Galaxy in Europe, which is virtually its only market (and sell a few thousand units in China). A difficult goal according to Inovev due to the decline of the minivan market that has been ongoing for the past several years. In 2013, VW sold only 29 000 Sharan, Seat sold 17 000 Alhambra , 8 000 Renault Espace and 3 000 Chrysler-Lancia Voyager.


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Ford introduces the new Mondeo

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Ford introduces the new Mondeo

- Ford is going to try and revive its European range of D-segment vehicles (sedan and estate versions) that have declined significantly in recent years. This decline is mainly due to the crisis (customers turning towards lower segments) and secondly because of the competition from other premium manufacturers (Audi, BMW, Mercedes) and from SUVs that have a growing market share throughout Europe.


- Most mainstream manufacturers face the same difficulties as Ford in this segment in Europe. In 2013, Renault sold only 17 500 Laguna, Citroen sold  23 500 C5 , Peugeot sold 54 000 of its 508 models, Opel sold 74 500 Insignia and Ford sold 46 500 Mondeo. Since 2008, Ford has seen the sales of the Mondeo divided by four.


- The new Mondeo uses the body of the American Fusion that has been on the market for two years and is based on the new  C/D global platform. Ford waited for the shut down of the Genk plant in late 2014 in order to start marketing it in Europe. The new Mondeo has been manufactured for a few weeks now in the Valencia plant, Spain (alongside the Kuga, the Transit Connect and the S-Max/Galaxy which will be launched in January 2015). Ford expects to produce 100 000 units per year in the plant, excluding units manufactured in Russia (8 000 units planned), China (70 000 units), Mexico (350 000 units) and in the USA (80 000 units). The new Mondeo will be equipped with a 1.5 or 2.0 Ecoboost petrol engine or a diesel Ecoboost 1.6 TDCI or a 2.0 TDCI. A 3-cylinder petrol 1.0 Ecoboost will also be available in 2015, alongside a petrol hybrid version.


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Belgian market forecast in 2015 (PC + LCV)

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Belgian market forecast in 2015 (PC + LCV)

- The Belgian car market (PC + LUV) is characterised by 15 years of great stability, seeing as it has been gravitating around 500 000 to 600 000 units since the early 2000s. The three main factors that explain the variations in the Belgium market are : the 2008 financial crisis (- 100,000 units in 2009 / 2008), the introduction of government subsidies in 2010 and 2011 (+100 000 units in 2011/2009) and the aftermath of the end of these government subsidies in 2012 (-100,000 units in 2012/2011) .

- Since 2012, the market hasn't changed much and Inovev does not foresee any significant improvement before 2015. The Belgian market should settle at 550 000 sales in 2015, which has in fact been the average level of the market for fifteen years.

- In 2015, with stable economic indicators (including a GDP of +1.5%), the market will be driven primarily by replacement vehicles (whose average age is increasing) and by company fleets. In a stable market and in the current economical context, the introduction of new government subsidies is not on the agenda.

- Belgium is one of the European countries that imports the highest number of vehicles: In 2014, 89% of vehicles sold in Belgium were imported from abroad, partly because the country only produces 7 different models locally out of 350 models available on the market.

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Chinese carmakers (without JV) dropped to 28% market share in China in 2014

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Chinese carmakers (without JV) dropped to 28% market share in China in 2014

- The market share of Chinese carmakers (without JV) regarding PC fell in 2014. Indeed, in the first eight months of the year, they accounted for 28% of the domestic market, while they held 33% in 2012 and 30% in 2013. A few years ago, the Chinese government set a target of 40% market share but they will not achieve this goal in the short term under current circumstances.

- In continuous decline for several years, 100% Chinese brands are not however all in the same boat. Some brands do better than others. In the first eight months of 2014, Changan (+ 23.3%) and Dongfeng (+28.8%) are growing, while other brands such as Beijing (-15.0%), Brilliance (-30, 8%), BYD (-19.3%), Chery (-7.4%), FAW (-20.2%), Geely (-27.8%), Great Wall (-9.6%), JAC (-23.1%) and Lifan (-18.3%) have declined. Changan consolidates its position as the leading manufacturer among 100% Chinese carmakers, ahead of Great Wall, Dongfeng, Chery, BYD, Geely and FAW.

- Chinese carmakers (without JV) globally suffer from the comparison and competition from foreign manufacturers whose products better meet the new requirements of Chinese consumers. Exponential development of brands and models without real market analysis (several models in the same segment with the same bodies are marketed by the same carmaker), make products catalogues difficult to understand. In addition, since the introduction of new standards for exhaust emissions in 2010, Chinese manufacturer don’t all meet the new requirements, which is leading to decline in sale volumes even though the  market is still increasing.

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