European market Forecast for 2015 (PC + LUV)

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European market Forecast for 2015 (PC + LUV)

- The European car market (29 countries) has lost 23% of its volume from 2007 to 2013, and this decline was extended for another six years after that. In 2014, for the first time since 2007, the European market finally seems to be picking up (+6% over the first 8 months of 2014).


- In 2015, the euro zone should experience a gradual growth in its economy (+1.5% according to the European Commission and the IMF), which will induce  an increase in consumer spending and a recovery in business investments.


- In this context and considering the automotive supply expected in this period Inovev tables on a reboot and a moderate growth in the European market between 2014 and 2015, of around 3%.


- Expected levels are still far far from those of 2005 to 2008 (17 to 18 million vehicles per year) but 15 million new vehicles sold in 2015 is a likely scenario (it is expected to reach 14.5 million units in 2014) .


- In the longer term, beyond economic factors, social factors must also be taken into account and may deeply impact the market : lower purchase rate among 1st time buyers , slower vehicle renewal rates and stricter vehicle restrictions in major cities, followed by the increase of car sharing and carpooling, development of public and alternative transport, declining demographics in some countries, etc …


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Production forecast for the UK in 2015 (PC + LUV)

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Production forecast for the UK in 2015 (PC + LUV)

- British car production has been growing ever since the drop in 2009, and today it is close behind the level of French production.


- UK production is healthy thanks to the success of the Nissan Qashqai, Nissan Juke, BMW Mini, which has offset the loss of Ford, once a major producer in Britain.


- Jaguar and Land Rover makes have especially benefited from the worldwide success of Premium brands, especially in Europe, the USA and China. Likewise, at a smaller scale for Aston Martin, Bentley and Rolls-Royce.


- Thus,  British production approaches once more a production capacity of 2 million vehicles per year (against 3 million for France) and the progression of the UK and European market as a whole can only improve this prognosis.


- In addition, the transfer of the Toyota Auris from Turkey to Britain in 2013, the arrival of the Nissan Leaf in 2013, the Infiniti Q30 in 2015, the Jaguar XE in 2015 will accentuate this phenomenon, even if in the same timeframe the GM Luton plant lost the manufacturing of the Renault Trafic in 2014 (transfer to the French Sandouville plant).


- Inovev expects a 7% increase in production between 2015 and 2014.


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Production forecast for France in 2015 (PC + LUV)

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Production forecast for France in 2015 (PC + LUV)

- The French automobile production has been declining significantly since the early 2000s, mainly because of the many relocations to Eastern Europe, Turkey and Spain.

- Indeed,  the Renault Clio, Renault Twingo, Peugeot 207, Peugeot 208, Citroen C3 Picasso, (all high-volume models) have left France. The arrival of Dacia models in 2005 has offset the decline in Renault sales in France and continental Europe, but these cars are all produced abroad : Romania, Morocco, Russia, etc ... Finally, the Czech car industry benefited the most from the arrival of small PSA vehicles built with Toyota. Alongside increasing vehicle transfers aren't going to stop  soon. In 2016, the entire production of the Citroën C3 and Peugeot 208 will leave France to go towards Eastern Europe .

- Meanwhile, SUVs marketed by French manufacturers were introduced late compared to the demand, while the MPV category (like the Renault Scénic produced in France) has already began its decline. French production will therefore reach 2 million units in 2014.

- Nevertheless, with the launch of new models, the restarting the European market (and the French market), the arrival of the Peugeot 2008 in the Mulhouse plant (mini-SUV), the arrival of the Renault Trafic in the Sandouville plant (LUV) and the commitments taken by Renault and PSA to produce more vehicles in France, French production is expected to grow in 2015.

- Inovev foresees a growth in production in France of 5.7% in 2015 compared to 2014.

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Production forecast for Italy in 2015 (PC + LUV)

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Production forecast for Italy in 2015 (PC + LUV)

- Italian car production declined significantly in the 2000s, mainly due to relocations towards Poland (Fiat Panda, Fiat 500, Lancia Ypsilon) towards Serbia (Fiat 500 L) and towards Turkey (Fiat Fiorino, Doblo).

- In addition, the decline in Fiat C segment sales (Stilo, Bravo) and Lancia C-D-E segments (Delta, Lybra, Thesis), and even Alfa Romeo generally accentuated the decline of Italian production.

- Finally, the sharp decline of the Italian market after the financial crisis, has not helped the development of the Italian automotive industry.

- Hence, the Italian car production reached its lowest point in 2013 (639 000 units), two times lower than in 2007. 2014 and 2015 will be better, because the domestic market is restarting, just like the European market (after five years of decline). In addition, since the purchase of Chrysler, the Fiat Group may have a policy for global production, which will enable it to produce in Italy vehicles for the global market : the new Jeep Renegade and Fiat 500 X produced in Melfi, the new Alfa Romeo planned for 2015 - 2016, Maserati scaling from levels close to those of Ferrari to levels closer to those of Jaguar. The Italian production should again get closer to 850 000 units in 2015. Inovev expects production in Italy to increase by 8% between 2014 and 2015.

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Production forecast for Germany in 2015 (PC + LUV)

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Production forecast for Germany in 2015 (PC + LUV)

- The German automobile production has reached its best levels since 2007 and apart from a low reached in 2009 like in most European countries, Germany reaches every year around 6 million vehicles produced.

- These figures can be explained mainly by the growth of premium brands such as Audi, BMW, Mercedes and Porsche, that have increased both in Europe and in the world (increasing exports from Germany). They can also be explained by the growth of the Volkswagen make that has developed in Europe and worldwide. Finally, the return of Ford and Opel models to Germany (Fiesta, Focus, Zafira and soon C-Max) has helped to maintain the level of German production.

- It may also be added that the decision German carmakers took to not heavily relocate German production outside of the country worked in its favour

- However, Inovev does not expect significant growth of German production in 2015, as Mercedes has recently started to produced its C-Class vehicles in the USA, Audi is going to produce the Q5 in Mexico and BMW will soon produce some of its models in Mexico as well. Another important element is the gradual transfer of Chinese exports to local production, at the request of the Chinese government (exports that represented almost 400 000 units in 2013).

- German production is expected to stabilize in 2015 and will grow no more than 1% between 2014 and 2015.

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