Russian market forecast for 2015 (PC + LUV)
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- The Russian automotive market (PC + LUV) has dropped significantly since the beginning of the year and should end the year at -13.5%. The situation that wasn't exactly prone to growth since 2013 (-5.4% over 12 months) has significantly deteriorated.
- Despite a fairly robust consumption (thanks to rising incomes), the Russian economy is still quite fragile, and among other things a lack of investor confidence is also to blame. The development of geopolitical tensions over Ukraine, has accentuated the slowdown in the Russian economy.
- Until the situation stabilises, it is very difficult to predict the market evolution in 2015.
- However, the introduction on the 1st September 2014 of a new scrapping scheme may compensate over the four next months part of the decline in the Russian market, since these incentives will end on the 31 December 2014.
- The Russian market could well end the year 2014 with a volume of 2.4 million new vehicles sold (-13.5%), while another scenario of -20% was feasible prior to the announcement of these new scrappage schemes.
- The Russian market could decline again in 2015 (2.35 million vehicles) if the scrappage scheme are not maintained beyond 2014, especially if the economic and political situation does not settle by then. The reboot of the Russian market could ultimately take place in 2016.
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French market Forecast for 2015 (PC+LUV)
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German market Forecast for 2015 (PC + LUV)
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Italian market forecast for 2015 (PC + LCV)
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- The Italian car market declined by almost 50% after its sales peak in 2007. From a level close to 1.4 million vehicles in 2013 (against 2.7 million in 2007), in 2014 the Italian market is finally experiencing a reboot (Inovev forecasts a 5% increase in 2014 ). We will therefor remain far below the levels of 2007, and even below the levels of 2008 to 2010, at the time the market exceeded 2 million units each year.
- Following this growth, and taking into account of the economic outlook in Italy for 2015 (growth of 1.1% according to the IMF and the European Commission), the Italian automotive market could grow by 6.5% next year.
- However, growth forecasts may vary if the government introduces a new "scrappage scheme”. Indeed, the Italian government (prompted by the National Automobile Dealers Association) is considering tax incentives for individuals and company fleets. The duration and extent of these incentives will therefore automatically affect the market growth in 2015.
- Italy is one of Europe's main importing countries: 86% of vehicles sold in Italy are imported from abroad in 2014, almost as much as in Britain.
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UK market Forecast for 2015 (PC + LUV)
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- The UK car market had declined significantly between 2007 and 2011, following the financial crisis. Which is why, the continued growth of this market recorded since 2012 (10% in 2013 and 10% in 2014), can be considered as a simple catch up, since the expected levels in 2014 (2.7 million units) will be close those of 2007, no more no less.
- The growth of the automobile market should certainly be lower in 2015 (2.4% according to Inovev), but there will be no decrease as one might have imagined last year. Indeed, there is currently no signs of such a scenario. Moreover growth forecasts for the United Kingdom (+2.7% in 2015) do not indicate any short term slowdown for this economy mainly based on loans.
- In this context, the sales volume of PC +LUVs is expected to exceed 2.7 million units, making it the second largest in Europe behind Germany. Let us recall that in the UK, only a small proportion of PC are purchased by individuals.
- The UK is the country that imports the most vehicles in the top five European markets: in 2014, 88% of vehicles sold in the UK were imported from abroad.
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