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Details: Published: 06 September 2022

Polish production Forecast for 2015 (PC + LUV)

- Polish car production rose steadily until 2009-2011, passing for the first time the production threshold of 1 million vehicles a year. Since then, production volume has been reduced by half. And this for several reasons: first, the decline of the European market as a whole, which was even more important in Eastern Europe (-35% decrease over this period), a main area for Polish production. Then, the production transfer of some models to other foreign plants such as the Fiat Panda (200 000 to 300 000 units before 2012) that was transferred to Italy in 2012 or the Opel Zafira (100 000 units in 2011) that was transferred to Germany in 2011 was not offset by the arrival of the Lancia Ypsilon (70 000 annual units ) and the Opel Cascada (10 000 annual units ).

- The overall loss would represent between 220 000 and 320 000 vehicles per year, plus the end of activity of the Autozaz plant in Zeran (Warsaw) which equalled 100 000 vehicles produced each year. The project to manufacture the Chevrolet on this site was abandoned since GM decided to discontinue the Chevrolet brand in Europe. In addition, Poland has lost many relocations in recent years to the benefit of Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary. For the year 2014, the Polish production should be relatively stable (up 3% compared to 2013). In 2015, no new models are planned to arrive in the Fiat plant (Tichy), Opel (Gliwice) and VW (Poznan). However, the expected sales increase of locally produced models in Poland could allow a growth of around 12%, reaching a volume of 600 000 units.

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Details: Published: 06 September 2022

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Polish market forecast in 2015 (PC + LUV)

- The Polish automotive market (PC + LUV) should experience an increase of approximately 16% in 2014 compared to 2013 reaching 385 000 units. The growth was particularly strong in the first quarter of 2014, as the first 3 months of the year marked the end of government incentives. These government incentives allowed companies to claim VAT deductions for the purchase of new vehicles. This created anticipated purchases. Another phenomenon to be considered is the re-export of vehicles purchased in Poland to Western Europe, particularly towards Germany. The Polish car market is artificially overestimated due to these re-exports.

- For 2015, Inovev expects (in its most pessimistic scenario) a small increase compared to 2014 (up 3%), the market should reach the 400 000 units. The increase will be smaller in 2014, since the re-exporting market will follow the demand of Western Europe, which itself should only be up slightly. Nevertheless, it would not be surprising if market growth was more important, since the economic projections for 2015 (supplied by the OECD) indicate that domestic demand and exports are expected to maintain the country's current momentum. Of course, the geopolitical situation in Ukraine could also affect the Polish automotive market.

- Poland is one of the European countries that imports the most vehicles: 97% of cars sold in Poland in 2014 were imported from abroad, almost as much as in countries that do not produce any vehicles. Poland only produces 6 models out of the 350 models available on the market.

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Details: Published: 06 September 2022

Ford unveils the new S-Max

- The Ford S-Max is the carmaker’s MPV from segment D, located above the C-Max (segment C, available in two wheelbases) and the B-Max (segment B, available in one wheelbase).

- The new generation of the S-Max unveiled today (and based on the global C/D platform of the new Mondeo) follows the version launched in 2006 and restyled in 2010, which had declined sharply in recent years, particularly because of competition from the SUV market. In 2013, Ford sold 46 000 Galaxy / S-Max in Europe against 100 000 in 2007.

- Likewise as for the 2006 generation, the new S-Max will be declined across a Galaxy version, which will be unveiled in a few weeks. The new S-Max has 1.5 Ecoboost and 2.0 Ecoboost petrol engine and a diesel 1.6 TDCi and 2.0 TDCi. A gasoline-electric hybrid version version could be launched later on.

- The new S-Max will be produced as of January 2015 in Valencia, Spain (alongside the Mondeo, Kuga and Transit Connect). Ford expects to sell 100 000 S-Max / Galaxy in Europe, which is virtually its only market (and sell a few thousand units in China). A difficult goal according to Inovev due to the decline of the minivan market that has been ongoing for the past several years. In 2013, VW sold only 29 000 Sharan, Seat sold 17 000 Alhambra , 8 000 Renault Espace and 3 000 Chrysler-Lancia Voyager.

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Read more... Ford unveils the new S-Max

Details: Published: 06 September 2022

Dutch market forecast in 2015 (PC + LUV)

- Sales inside the Dutch automotive market (PC + LUV) have declined by nearly 35% between 2000 and 2013. With a level of 470 000 vehicles in 2013 (against 700 000 in 2000), the market is expected to end 2014 with a decrease of 2% (reaching 460 000 units), the end of 2013 was distorted by anticipated purchases prior to the introduction of a series of new taxes on vehicle pricing.

- In 2015, the Dutch market may trigger a modest restart (+ 3% expected by Inovev in 2015) and settle at a level close to 470 000 units. The purchase of vehicles is becoming less and less important. A phenomenon found in Europe but much more present in the Netherlands, with on one hand, the development of public transport or alternative transport and on the other, at a lesser extent the social status associated with vehicles. From an economic point of view, the growth in 2015 expected by the CPB (Centraal Plan Bureau) should be of 1.25% in 2015. The demand from professionals should not be greater than in previous years .

- The Dutch market, which imports 100% of its models, is one of the European markets where vehicles from segments A and B are the most numerous. They make up 53% of the market in 2013, a figure rarely equalled in other European markets (the average for this type of vehicle in the EU was 43% in 2013).

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Details: Published: 06 September 2022

Belgian market forecast in 2015 (PC + LCV)

- The Belgian car market (PC + LUV) is characterised by 15 years of great stability, seeing as it has been gravitating around 500 000 to 600 000 units since the early 2000s. The three main factors that explain the variations in the Belgium market are : the 2008 financial crisis (- 100,000 units in 2009 / 2008), the introduction of government subsidies in 2010 and 2011 (+100 000 units in 2011/2009) and the aftermath of the end of these government subsidies in 2012 (-100,000 units in 2012/2011) .

- Since 2012, the market hasn't changed much and Inovev does not foresee any significant improvement before 2015. The Belgian market should settle at 550 000 sales in 2015, which has in fact been the average level of the market for fifteen years.

- In 2015, with stable economic indicators (including a GDP of +1.5%), the market will be driven primarily by replacement vehicles (whose average age is increasing) and by company fleets. In a stable market and in the current economical context, the introduction of new government subsidies is not on the agenda.

- Belgium is one of the European countries that imports the highest number of vehicles: In 2014, 89% of vehicles sold in Belgium were imported from abroad, partly because the country only produces 7 different models locally out of 350 models available on the market.

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