Consequences of the ECB decision on the automotive production and automotive market in the Euro zone (3/3-imports)

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Consequences of the ECB decision on the automotive production and automotive market in the Euro zone (3/3-imports)
 

- Which countries and carmakers export vehicles to the Euro zone? The two countries that have the highest export volume are two EU countries, the Czech Republic and the United Kingdom, followed by Turkey and Japan.


- Regarding carmakers, the Czech brand Skoda (VW Group) is the first vehicle exporter to the Eurozone ahead of the Romanian Dacia (Renault-Nissan group). These two carmakers are in theory a little more under the influence of the Euro currency fluctuations because they put the sale price of their vehicles as an important differentiating factor compared to other generalist carmakers. Four other carmakers, Nissan (in UK), Fiat (in Poland and Serbia), Hyundai (in the Czech Republic and Turkey) and Toyota (in Czech Republic and Turkey) may also be influenced by the decision of the ECB.


- At the end, registration levels and thus future production will depend on the strategies adopted by each carmaker (mainly European and Asian), as they choose to update their prices upwards, take up the additional production costs or even to see production volumes in countries outside the euro zone decrease (by vehicle transfers or plant closures).


15-03-9  

 

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The Renault Captur is the best selling B-segment SUV in Europe in 2014

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The Renault Captur is the best selling B-segment SUV in Europe in 2014
 
- In 2014, Inovev has identified over 300 different models marketed in 17 European countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom). These 17 countries represent 94% of the total European market (+ Switzerland).

- The Renault Captur was the best selling B-segment SUV in Europe in 2014, while between 2011 and 2013, the first place was owned by the Nissan Juke launched in 2010. The Renault Captur is the leader in its segment only one year after its launch. Before the Juke, it was the Suzuki SX4, which held the first place of B-segment SUVs.

- SUVs from B-segment represented 650 000 sales in 2014, half of the sales of segment C, but their recent and rapid development shows these vehicles experienced the fastest growth in the European market (+ 55% of sales between 2013 and 2014, in a global market + 5.5%). Today B-segment represent 26% of SUVs sales, all segments combined, against 52% for C-segment, 14% for D-segment, 6% for E segment and 2% for F segment. It is to be noted that SUVs from all combined segments represent 20% of European car sales in 2014, against 17% in 2013.

- The main competitors of the Renault Captur (representing 24.3% of its SUVs B-segment) are the Peugeot 2008 (20.3%), Opel Mokka (18.6%), Nissan Juke (14.2%), Skoda Yeti (9%), Mini Countryman (6.5%), Citroën C4 Cactus (4.4%) and Ford Ecosport (2%). Honda, Volkswagen, Toyota and Hyundai-Kia planned to be on the market by 2015-2016.


15-03-10  

 

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Consequences of the ECB decision on the automotive production and automotive market in the Euro zone (1/3-registrations)

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Consequences of the ECB decision on the automotive production and automotive market in the Euro zone (1/3-registrations)
 

- The announcement by the European Central Bank (ECB) to inject 60 billion euros per month until 2016 in the European economy for the redemption of government debt, is intended for all economic players. Through this mechanism, two notable effects are expected among other things: an increase in loans to businesses and households by banks and a decline of the Euro as a result of the creation of money.


- What are the possible effects of these decisions on the car market and car carmakers present in and outside the euro area? In theory, PC + LCV registrations in the euro area, which account for over 60% of the registration of the European Union, are expected to grow through access to credit by households (for PC) and fleet (for PC + LCV).


- However, it is necessary to qualify this, firstly because the measures of the ECB will not take effect until March and therefore the impact on household and business consumption will not be seen straight away, secondly because interest rates are already low in France and Germany, and down in Italy, Spain and Portugal.


- Finally, it should not overshadow the economic environment and the structure of a mature European car market that is also affected by other factors (transport use , ecology, politics ...) The example shown by other countries (such as Japan) who used the "quantitative easing" (or QE) without a significant effect on the growth of the automobile market, urges us to be cautious in our forecasts. At best the market could experience a momentary growth in sales or simply a surge in growth at the right time, and would have similar effects as would a "scrapping bonus".


- It is why Inovev maintains its forecast of a 2% growth in sales of passenger car and light commercial vehicle in 2015 in the EU market.


15-03-7  

 

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Consequences of the ECB decision on the automotive production and automotive market in the Euro zone (2/3-exports)

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Consequences of the ECB decision on the automotive production and automotive market in the Euro zone (2/3-exports)
 
- After registrations in the Euro zone, the second expected effect, namely the decline of the Euro currency, could influence the production of vehicles (PC + LCV) of the countries present in the Eurozone (for exports) and consequently those of countries outside the Eurozone (for imports). Due to globalisation, groups and their production plants in the Euro zone, in the EU and outside the EU, have their interests on both sides of the border.

- It is difficult at this time to forecast the influence of the Euro currency decline on the levels of vehicles production, export and import of countries and carmakers. Especially, we should take into account the reaction of each country outside the euro zone (in the EU and in the world). However, it is interesting to draw the 2014 inventory of automobile production of countries and carmakers present in and outside of the Eurozone.

- Which countries and carmakers export outside the Euro zone? In the first place Germany (leading exporter in the EU), Spain (for vehicles to the EU) and France. Among generalist carmakers, VW, Ford, Peugeot, Opel, Renault and Citroen are the biggest exporters but the volume of exports (except VW) is less than that of Premium carmakers such as Mercedes, BMW and Audi. If generalist brands could see sale prices of their models reduce in foreign markets, the effect induced by a weaker euro will be less visible for Premiums brands (Mercedes, BMW and Audi), as the price factor is less dominant on the sales level of such products.


15-03-8  

 

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Japanese manufacturers production in Japan and around the world

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Japanese manufacturers production in Japan and around the world
 

- In 2005, the share of Japanese production in Japan was 55%. In 2013, this share fell to 42%. Japanese carmakers indeed produced 20.6 million vehicles worldwide last year, including 8.6 million vehicles in Japan and 12 million outside of Japan.


- Toyota produced 9.8 million vehicles worldwide, of which 4.3 million in Japan (44% of world production).


- Honda has produced 4.2 million vehicles worldwide; of which 0.84 million in Japan (20% of world production).


- Suzuki produced 2.7 million vehicles worldwide, of which 0.98 million in Japan (37% of world production).


- Mazda has produced 1.3 million vehicles worldwide, of which 0.97 million in Japan (74% of world production).


- Mitsubishi has produced 1.2 million vehicles worldwide, of which 0.69 million in Japan (55% of world production).


- Subaru has produced 0.8 million vehicles worldwide, of which 0.64 million in Japan (79% of world production).


- The most internationalised Japanese carmakers (through plants installed worldwide) are therefore Honda (China, USA) and Suzuki (India). Toyota comes next because its Daihatsu subsidiary is mainly based in Japan. The least internationalized groups are Subaru, Mazda and Mitsubishi, which are also the three smaller Japanese carmakers.


- NB: Nissan is incorporated by Inovev as a manufacturer controlled by Renault, and therefore is French.


15-03-5  

 

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  1. The European PC market (29 countries) increased by 5.5% in 2014 (1/2 - General)
  2. The European PC market (29 countries) increased by 5.5% in 2014 (2/2 - Carmakers)
  3. The Australian PC + LUV market declined by 2% in 2014 (1/2)
  4. The Russian PC+LUV market fell by 10.3% in 2014 (1/2)
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