Comparing production to sales in Europe (29 countries) and China
 

Europe (29 countries) is a region characterized by production volume very close to the number of registrations, which means that export volumes fully offset import volumes (about 2.5 million units a year, over the past two years).


This is slightly less true since the crisis of 2008-2009 when we observed that production volume became slightly higher than the number of registrations This is due mainly to Japanese and Korean transplants that have developed on the European continent in the 2000s, gradually replacing imports from Japan or Korea.


China is a country that is very similar to Europe in terms of proportion of exports / imports. Indeed, the volume of exports is almost equivalent to that of imports (about 1 million units per year over the last two years).


China exports vehicles in two different ways: either complete vehicles directly to foreign markets, or spare parts (CKD kits) to be assembled in dedicated plants, often owned by independent foreign manufacturers.

 
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Comparing production to sales between the U.S. and Japan
 
The United States have been characterized for a long time by a production volume very different to registration volumes, registrations are still well above the production, which means that import volumes are much higher than exports which remain low (in recent years, registrations have been about 50% higher that production levels).

This significant difference between production and registration is all the more spectacular as it takes into account the development of Korean and Japanese transplants in the United States, which means that the demand for models from Japan, Korea, but also from in Europe remains strong.

Japan is a country that is much like the United States in terms of proportion of exports / imports, but reversed. Indeed, the volume of production is much higher than that of registrations ( production has been about 80% higher than registrations in the course of the last few years).

Indeed Japan exports a lot more vehicles than it imports (especially to the United States). These exports add to Japanese transplants already established on other continents. Korea also has this feature, indeed it exports much more vehicles than it imports.
 
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Evolution of  production and sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in the United States
 

The production of passenger cars in the U.S. stood at 4.26 million units in 2012, against 3.22 million in 2011 and 2.88 million in 2010. Over the first eight months of 2013, it  increased by 4.5% compared to last year.


Registrations of passenger cars in the U.S. rose at 7.47 million units in 2012, against 6.39 million in 2011 and 5.99 million in 2010. Over the first eight months of 2013 they were up by 5.5% compared to last year.


The production of commercial vehicles in the U.S. stood at 6.09 million units in 2012, against 5.58 million in 2011 and 4.92 million in 2010. Over the first eight months of 2013, it is up by 5.5% compared to last year.


Commercial vehicle registrations in the U.S. totaled at 7.02 million units in 2012, against 6.44 million in 2011 and 5.60 million in 2010. Over the first eight months of 2013 they increased by 14% compared to last year, which means there are a lot of imports (Mexico, Canada and other countries).


Let us recall that in the U.S., commercial vehicles include trucks, but also pick-ups, vans, SUVs and crossovers (unlike Europe where only minivans, SUVs and crossovers are considered as passenger cars). 

 
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European production by country from 2000 to 2017
 

European production is expected to grow over the coming years due to a sluggish domestic market and struggling exports.


In Western Europe (17 European countries), the production volume will be dominated by Germany(with a stable production around 6 million vehicles per year) despite the gradual replacement of exports to China by production in China (Audi, BMW, Mercedes). France, whose production volume has declined significantly since 2002 and is likely to go up a little due to the commitments of Renault and PSA, but Spain should stay in front, due to the efforts of manufacturers in order to boost spanish production (Opel Mokka, Renault Captur, Citroen C3 Picasso, Ford Mondeo, Ford S-Max, Seat SUV). Britain should experience its best years since last decadethanks to the addition of new Japanese models on its assembly lines. Italy should see a small raise (Alfa, Jeep, Maserati).


In Eastern Europe (12 new members), after the boom of production in the 2000s, it should reach a certain stability as capacity increases and the construction of new plants will stop. In addition, some models are expected to be relocated in Western Europe (Citroen C3 Picasso, 2-door version of the Renault Twingo) or even North Africa (Dacia).

 
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Evolution of  production and sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Japan
 
The production of passenger cars in Japan stood at 8.64 million units in 2012, against 7.15 million in 2011 and 8.31 million in 2010. Over the first eight months of 2013, it is down by 10.7% compared to last year.

Passenger car registrations in Japan totaled at 4.57 million units in 2012, against 3.52 million in 2011 (following the devastating tsunami) and 4.21 million in 2010. Over the first eight months of 2013 they are down by 8% compared to last year.

The production of commercial vehicles in Japan stood at 1.39 million units in 2012, against 1.24 million in 2011 and 1.32 million in 2010. Over the first eight months of 2013, it is stable compared to last year.

Commercial vehicle registrations in Japan totaled at 0.80 million units in 2012, against 0.68 million in 2011 (following the devastating tsunami) and 0.74 million in 2010. Over the first eight months of 2013 they are down 3.5% compared to last year.

The classification of vehicles in Japan is the same as in Europe: minivans, SUVs and crossovers are all considered as passenger cars.
 
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