The UK market has declined from 2.58 million PC to 2.04 million in 9 years

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The UK market has declined from 2.58 million PC to 2.04 million in 9 years
 

- The UK market  of PC (Passenger Cars) is one of the few  markets in Europe to have increased in 2012 (+ 104 000 vehicles) and 2013 (+ 42 000 vehicles over three months).


- However, an analysis over a longer period highlights that the UK market declined significantly, from 2.58 million vehicles in 2003 down  to 2.04 million vehicles in 2012 (loss of 540,000 vehicles). Over the same period, the French market fell only by 110,000 vehicles (from 2 million PC in 2003 down  to 1.19 million PC in 2012) and the German market fell on its side by 160,000 units (3.24 million vehiclesin2003 down to 3.08 million in 2012).


- The current apparent good health of the UK market is the result of a catch up.


- Furthermore, the specific characteristics of the UK market (half of the purchases achieved by companies and only the left half by individuals) explains the absence of large amplitudes as in other markets where there is a predominance of purchases by individuals. The bulk purchase by companies (fleet) is generally stable and smoothens (reduction by half) the amplitudesbetween increases and decreases in market.


- Regarding carmakers, the VW group (20% of the market) has overpassed the Ford Group (former market leader over 70 years, until 2011) and the GM group. The VW group has actually  taken  the place left by the British Leyland group (market leader in the 60s.) With the Mini, the BMW Group occupies  the fourth position in this market ,before PSA (5th position) and Renault-Nissan (6thposition).

 

13-17-10

 

The Shanghai Motor Show 2013 confirms the maturity of Chinese carmakers

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The Shanghai Motor Show 2013 confirms the maturity of Chinese carmakers
 
- The 100% Chinese carmakers occupy today only 30% of the Chinese market while they occupied 37% three years ago.

- To compete with Western carmakers, 100% Chinese carmakers are reviewing their offer.
 
- Thus, at the 2013 Shanghai Motor Show the 100% Chinese carmakers mostly presented classic sedans and SUVs (European segments C and D). These are indeed the bodyworks and segments that dominate the first automobile market in the world. The premium segment is meanwhile the prerogative of foreign carmakers, mostly from imports.
 
- 100% Chinese carmakers thus decide to take a step forward by offering a more attractive product and removing sub-brands that were not as successful as hoped.
 
- The objective is to gradually reach the 40% market share, target set by the Chinese government three years ago. The Chinese authorities want to in fact develop the influence of 100%Chinese carmakers faced with the domination of Western manufacturers who now occupy 70% of the market.

13-18-1

 

GM more ambitious than VW in China

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GM more ambitious than VW in China
 

- In 2012, GM and VW groups have each sold 2.8 million passenger cars in China (2.6 million vehicles produced in China and 200,000 vehicles imported). Both groups run neck and neck in the Chinese market with a market share of 18% each in 2012 and both aim to sell 3 million vehicles in China in 2013. However, on the next short term period (2015-2018), GM Group has a greater ambition than the VW group in the Chinese market.


- The objectives announced by GM are:

- Bring the annual production capacity  to 5 million  vehicles by 2015 with the construction of four new plants (to a total of 17 plants).

- Expand the sales network to 4,200 dealers at the end of 2013.


- The objectives announced by VW are:

- Increase the production capacity to 4 million vehicles by 2018 with the construction of four new plants (to a total of 21 plants)

- Develop the sales network from currently 2,100 dealers to 3000 dealers on medium term.


- The ambitions of GM and VW may reflect a different vision of the future of the automotive market:

- For GM, the Chinese market  would continue to grow at least at the same rate  as today. GM’s objective is to  increase its  market share at the expense of competitors,

- For VW, the growth of the Chinese market would become lower than  today. VW’s  objective is to maintain its market share.

 

13-17-8

 

The Russian market will not reach 3 million units in 2013

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The Russian market will not reach 3 million units in 2013
 
- The Russian market will likely not reach 3 million vehicles (passenger cars and light commercial vehicles) in 2013. The market, which had accounted for 2,935,111 vehicles in 2012 (against 2,653,408 vehicles in 2011), slows down every month since last year. Beginning in 2013, the downturn continues: the Russian market increased by 5% in January, and then only  2% in February and declined 3.5% in March.

- The Russian market had reached a  first peak in 2008 (2,849,330  vehicles), after a gentle growth period that began in 2004, following the economic "boom" and its consequences (increase of GDP, wages, household consumption...).
 
- The 2008 crisis and an uncontrolled economic development have led to a collapse of the market in 2009 ( down to 1,465,917 units), which then decreased by 49% in twelve months.
 
- Pushed by  incentives introduced by the Government and which favoured vehicles produced locally, the market was revived in 2010 (to 1,910,573 vehicles), continued to grow in 2011 and reached a second peak in 2012.
 
- In 2013, the incentives seem to have lost their beneficial effects. Consequently the market will likely achieve poorer results than in 2012.

- Regarding carmakers, the AvtoVAZ-Renault-Nissan group is in first position in 2012 with 31% market share, ahead of GM (12.8%), Hyundai-Kia (12.3%) and VW (11.0 %).
 

13-17-9

 

PSA and VW are growing in China, but to different ways

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PSA and VW are growing in China, but to different ways
 

- In the early 90s, the Volkswagen and PSA groups established themselves in China at the same time, the first with Shanghai Automotive (SAIC) and the second with Dongfeng (DFM). These were the first two foreign carmakers based in China. Since then,the German group has experienced a much higher growth than the French group.


- Indeed, both groups had a market outreach strategy and therefore offered very different products:

-At first VW,, put on the market the Santana, and then developed a full range of very different models, some specific to the Chinese market (VW Lavida, Magotan).

-PSA remained a very long time with a small range of derivatives of the Citroen ZX without developing in parallel new models.

 - VW management better measured the extent of the Chinese market. Entering the Chinese market at the same time, the gap between the two carmakers has been ever increasing since.Today, in China, the VW group has six times more sales than PSA.

- Sales of the Volkswagen Group in China overtook those made in Germany in 2009 onwards,while the sales of PSA in China exceeded those made in France in 2013. As of 2011, sales of the Volkswagen group in China represented twice those made in Germany, and the gap is becoming more and more marked since.

13-17-6

 

  1. The three Baltic States have lost 50% of their market volume since 2007
  2. Ford is relaunching the Escort on the Chinese market
  3. The Ukrainian market has lost 60% of its volume since 2008
  4. The New Zealand market has increased by 19.1% in 2012 (over 2011)
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