Diesel Passenger cars: Great Wall is the most active Chinese carmaker
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Diesel Passenger cars: Great Wall is the most active Chinese carmaker
- Passenger vehicle diesel engines are gaining attention in China in terms of local development and use thanks to their superior fuel efficiency and low carbon dioxide emission. The Chinese government announced the "Made in China 2025" plan in May 2015 which is intended to faster the manufacturing industry in the next 10 years. The plan specifies the development and practical application of common-rail technology for passenger vehicle diesel engines. The introduction of diesel engines could improve fuel efficiency by approximately 20 percent which would enable automakers to meet China's 2020 CAFE (corporate average fuel efficiency) target of 5.0L/100km.
- Regardless their significant benefit of meeting China's strict fuel efficiency regulations, diesel passenger vehicles account for less than one percent of all passenger vehicles made in China. The fact is that apart from Great Wall Motor, other Chinese automakers do not actively develop this motorisation. Major problems with China-made diesel passenger vehicles are high noise and vibration levels as well as significant difference in price compared to gasoline models. However, SUV users tend to prefer diesel engines with large torque and the market share of SUV will expanding rapidly in China in the coming years.
- The most active Chinese carmaker regarding diesel engine development is Great Wall. The carmaker completed development of its first diesel engine fitted with common-rail system in cooperation with Bosch in 2008. In 2010, Great Wall Motor's first self-developed diesel engine the GW4D20 was mounted on the Haval H5. The same engine powers the 2014 model of the Haval H5 and H6. In addition, the automaker unveiled 1.5L and 2.0L turbocharged diesel engines at the Beijing auto show in April 2014 which are expected to power a Haval brand high-end SUV from 2016.
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Russian market Forecast in 2016 (PC+LUV)
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Russian market Forecast in 2016 (PC+LUV)
- In 2015, the Russian automotive market (PC + LUV) should know an even stronger fall than the one known in 2014, as Inovev expects 1.75 million units this year, representing a decrease of nearly 30%, compared to the previous year.
- The economy is in recession. Falling oil prices, international sanctions and capital outflow have reduced investments, domestic consumption and imports. The strong inflation reduced net incomes, especially those of the working class. According to OECD, recovery in 2016 will be uncertain due to external environment and lack of structural reforms.
- For the automotive market, however, we observed in recent months a slowdown in the vehicle sales fall which means that the reboot of the market is not so far. This reboot would occur towards the end of 2016. The volume of registrations is expected to be slightly above 2 million units, representing an increase of 18% compared to the previous year.
- Following new model to be launched in 2016 can stimulate the Russian market during the year, are worthy to mention : the Lada Vesta (replacing the Priora) and X-Ray (Lada branded version of the Renault Duster).
- The Russian market also remains very dependent on imports. These have fallen by 57% over the first eight months of 2015 compared to the previous year.
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European market Forecast in 2016 (PC+LUV)
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European market Forecast in 2016 (PC+LUV)
- In 2015 the European car market 29 countries (PC + LUV) should experience a growth close to 8% compared to the previous year. The reboot of the European market will therefore happen much faster than expected.
- According to economic forecasts of the European Union, Europe (29 countries) should experience a GDP growth of 2% in 2016, reflecting a combination of beneficial factors: Oil prices which remain relatively low, a steady global growth, the euro which has continued to depreciate, and supportive economic policies in the EU.
- In 2016 Inovev expects an increase of 3% of European market. The European market should be greatly supported by Southern European markets (Spain and Italy), currently going through a catching up phase, and will also be supported by Eastern countries as they have a motorisation rate which is still quite low. The share of mature markets (Germany, Great Britain and France) in terms of European growth should be lower.
- Nevertheless, one should keep an eye on some countries in 2016. This is the case of Spain, whose PIVE plan, which led to a sharp increase in sales in 2014 and 2015 (+ 20% per year), will probably be stopped. This is also the case of Great Britain; the strong growth of recent years (+ 10% per year) will likely be weaker, as it is already the case in 2015.
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Japan market Forecast in 2016 (PC+LUV)
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Japan market Forecast in 2016 (PC+LUV)
- After a fairly decent year in 2014, the Japanese automotive market (PC + LUV) fell in 2015, with a decline that is expected to approach 10% throughout the year, to a level lower than 5 million units.
- The economic expansion derailed in 2015 due to a sharp slowdown in demand from China and other Asian countries and sluggish private consumption. According to the OECD, output growth is projected to pick up to 1% in 2016, as rising net wages support consumer spending.
- For the automotive market, a slight increase is noticeable since last summer. In 2016 Inovev foresees a slight restart of the market, with a growth of almost 3% compared to 2015.
- The ranking of carmakers will not change, with a strong predominance of Toyota, far beyond its competitors, Honda, Renault-Nissan and Suzuki. Mazda, Mitsubishi and Subaru being far behind.
The rate of imports in Japan remains one of the lowest recorded among major global markets (between 5% and 6% of the market) and it is not due to change in coming years.
The rate of imports in Japan remains one of the lowest recorded among major global markets (between 5% and 6% of the market) and it is not due to change in coming years.
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US market Forecast in 2016 (PC+LUV)
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US market Forecast in 2016 (PC+LUV)
- In 2015, the US automotive market (PC + LUV) should increase by 5% compared to 2014, reaching around 17.35 million units, a volume very close to its highest level reached in 2000 (17.4 million units).
- According to the OECD, GDP should continue to grow in 2016, driven by household demand and a low unemployment rate. Domestic demand will continue to be supported by good financial conditions, the improving of the job market and the boost to household purchasing power thanks to low energy prices and a stronger dollar. However, the boost from these influences should gradually slow down and will be damped by a weaker growth in exports due to sluggish external demand and the recent strengthening of the dollar.
- Although the US market is cyclic, it is highly probable that this market will increase slightly in 2016, reaching a new record (around 17.5 million units), representing a growth of 1%.
- The category of light trucks will have a great chance to supplant the sales volume of passenger cars, in a proportion close to 55%/45% (against 54%/46% in 2015). In this context, GM, Ford and FCA offer good development potential (these carmakers are very present - almost omnipresent - in the category of light trucks).
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